The schedule for the 2023 World Cup has undergone a revision. Among other changes, India’s match against the Netherlands has been postponed by a day and will now be played as the last league game of the tournament. Here’s a look at how this might benefit India.

A total of nine fixtures have been changed in the revised schedule released by the ICC on August 9. Two of those are India’s games: one against arch-rivals Pakistan, and the other against the Netherlands, who finished as runners-up in the World Cup Qualifier to make it through to the main event in India.

The changes in the schedule were made keeping in mind requests from the boards of the participating countries as well as local police authorities of some of the host cities that raised concerns about security. No venues have been changed for any game, but some games have either been postponed or preponed by a day or two, or have been converted from a day from to a day-night game and vice-versa.

How does the rescheduling help India?

India’s match against Pakistan got pushed ahead by a day due to security concerns raised by the local police in Ahmedabad. Sitting somewhere in the earlier phases of the league stage, the change in this fixture perhaps won’t have much of an effect on either team.

However, the rescheduling of India’s last game, against the Netherlands, from November 11 to November 12 may work in their favour. This match will now be the last of the league stage of the tournament, with only the semi-finals and the final to follow. This will allow both teams to know exactly what they need to do in order to achieve their goals.

In case either or both teams are in and around the middle of the table, still vying for a top-four spot, they’ll have the luxury of knowing the exact number of runs (or balls to spare) by which they need to win the game to overcome the net run rate of the teams above them.

The importance of net run rate

Net run rate generally plays an important part in tournaments with long league stages. And the ODI World Cup is one such tournament. The previous three editions have had teams getting eliminated due to inferior net run rates.

In the previous edition, New Zealand were the beneficiaries of having a better net run rate as they finished fourth with 11 points, the same number of points that Pakistan had, albeit with a worse net run rate. In the 2015 edition, West Indies qualified for the quarter-final over Ireland while in the 2011 edition, they finished just above Bangladesh, thanks to their superior net run rates on both occasions.

In fact, to go a step further, teams playing the last league game can also possibly control where they want to finish inside the top four (granted they do finish inside the top four). The semi-final lineups are such that the team finishing at the top plays the team finishing fourth, while the second and third-placed teams play each other.

If, for example, India are in the second spot before their game against the Netherlands, and winning by a big margin would take them to the top, they can possibly control their margin of victory depending on whether or not they want to finish at the top and face the fourth-placed team in the semi-final.

On an unrelated note, the rescheduled date for India’s game against the Netherlands – November 12 – also happens to be the day on which India will celebrate Diwali, one of the biggest Hindu festivals celebrated across the country, possibly increasing the logistical issues for the local authorities while dividing the attention of the Indian public.

It should be noted that India’s other fixture change happened because the original schedule had their match against Pakistan on the first day of Navratri, another widely celebrated Hindu festival.

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