The 2023-25 World Test Championship cycle could offer South Africa the perfect chance to qualify for the first time – but the SA20 is set to dent their hopes early on.

For all that an air of discontent often surrounds cricket in South Africa, they have continued to perform creditably on the field, particularly in Test cricket. They finished third in the 2021-23 World Test Championship, even ahead of England’s Bazballers, with six wins out of seven home Tests, and victories on the road in England and New Zealand.

Notably, that home run included a series win over India, who came into the tour having beaten Australia in Australia and claimed a 2-1 lead in England.

This time around, the Proteas’ schedule is even kinder. They have three home series scheduled against three Asian sides, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – South Africa have only lost one series at home to an Asian side in their history, and that required an innings from Kusal Perera rated by some as the greatest in Test history.

Their away series, meanwhile, are in Bangladesh and the West Indies – the bottom two sides in the 2021-23 WTC – and New Zealand, against whom South Africa have never lost a Test series. It would take either a significant shock from Bangladesh or the West Indies, or a historic result for South Africa to lose any of those series.

From a purely cricketing point of view, the two of those series that appear toughest are the visit by India, finalists in each of the two World Test Championships thus far, and the visit to New Zealand, winners of the inaugural competition. And it’s the latter of those that the SA20 could put a dent into.

Tracking back, the SA20 is Cricket South Africa’s shiny new T20 competition, launched last year to much fanfare, and attracting the likes of Jofra Archer and Jos Buttler to its franchises, each of which was bought by owners associated by one of the Indian Premier League teams.

CSA chief executive Pholetsi Moseki has stressed that the tournament is of vital importance to the financial health of cricket in South Africa, with international cricket no longer a banker.

“We still want bilateral cricket to be supreme but the reality for countries like us is that you only make money when you play India,” he told ESPNcricinfo in 2022. “In the pre-Covid year, in 2019, we hosted England and Australia and we still made a loss. So we have to look at other options.”

South Africa’s series against New Zealand will clash with the second edition of the SA20. After the CSA’s request to reschedule the series was turned down, Moseki has made clear that players will be compelled to play in SA20 rather than against the Blackcaps, with a weakened side set to be sent.

“Protea players in the SA20 will not be going to New Zealand and that is a directive from CSA,” he told ESPNcricinfo last week.

Of those who played in South Africa’s last Test, against West Indies, only two players – Dean Elgar and Tony de Zorzi – did not play in the initial edition of SA20. So any Proteas side will be severely under-strength.

That competition, staged earlier in 2023, also came at a cost to the national team: South Africa were forced to forfeit a series against Australia, risking automatic Cricket World Cup qualification in the process. As it was, South Africa still secured a berth at the upcoming global extravaganza. It remains to be seen whether they can pull off the same trick twice, but either way, it’s a stark signal of the declining importance of the international game.