With just four PCT* separating first and fourth in the World Test Championship table, over rates could end up deciding who makes the final at Lord’s.

There has been plenty of discussion around what each team needs to do to guarantee their passage. But what this assumes is that no teams receive any points penalties, something both South Africa and Australia have had to cop so far, finding themselves six and four overs short respectively.

That deduction is enough to see Australia in third, rather than in equal second, and more sluggishness, for any team, could prove costly. Australia might have more reason to be wary, with South African conditions often demanding a team use their fast bowlers extensively. Equally, in India, the days can get long and hot, leading to sides falling behind. Below is a look at how close the points differences could get.

England need to overtake India to reach the final, but over rate penalties are unlikely to play a role in separating those two sides. The two teams will be separated by at least 12 points one way or another come the end of the series, before any possible deductions are taken into account. If England pull off an unthinkable 3-0 win over India, they will be seven points clear of New Zealand, effectively eight when their superior tally of series wins is taken into account.

As it stands, Australia would be five points ahead of New Zealand with a 2-0 win over South Africa, so they will need to watch their over rate carefully. A couple of small deductions, or one big one, could see them needing a clean sweep over the Proteas, rather than just a 2-0 win. If Australia do finish level on points with the Black Caps, since both teams would have won the same number of series, their eventual position would be decided by runs per wicket ratio, with cumulative batting average divided by cumulative bowling average.

Much the same goes for India, but they have more points to play with. A 2-0 win would see them six points ahead of New Zealand, and they also have more series wins than Kane Williamson’s team. A 3-1 win would almost certainly be enough.

Evaluating how close India and England could get to Australia is a trickier ask. Below are, we think, all the scenarios in which their tallies would be within five points of each other.

If England win 2-0 and Australia win 2-1: Australia ahead by two points.
If England win 2-1 and Australia win 1-0: England ahead by four points.

If India draw 1-1 and Australia win 1-0: India ahead by two points.
If India draw 2-2 and Australia win 2-1: Australia ahead by three points.
If India win 1-0 and Australia win 2-1: Australia ahead by three points.

*With the Covid-19 pandemic disrupting the international calendar, the table is now sorted by points contested per points won (PCT)