The dust has settled on a dramatic, fractious Test series in Australia, and it’s left things delicately poised in the race for the first World Test Championship final.

England’s 2-0 series victory over Sri Lanka has kept them firmly in contention, and just three PCT* separate them in fourth with India in first.

New Zealand, having swept their home summer, will end up with 70 PCT, and that is something of a magic number when it comes to ensuring qualification for the final. Clear that bar, and you’ll be guaranteed a place at Lord’s. Miss it, and you’ll be dependent on other results.

England and India will begin a four-Test series next month, while Australia’s final assignment before the WTC is a three-match series away to South aFRICA.

What England, India and Australia need to do to clear 70 PCT

All three sides, oddly, have their destinies in their own hands. For England, a 3-0 or 4-0 win will see them past New Zealand and into one of the top two spots.

For India and Australia, each need to win their respective series by margins of two games or better. That means New Zealand are hoping at least one of the two series is close to give them a place in the final.

What happens if both series are close?

England need to beat India to overtake them in the WTC table, and doing so with a better margin than Australia will ensure they leapfrog Tim Paine’s side too. So if England win 3-1, they need to hope that Australia win 1-0 or 2-1 at best. A 2-1 win for England and a 1-0 win for Australia would also do the job.

Here's the outcome of every possible scenario in the final two series of the #WTC, if Australia and South Africa play a 3 match series.

Colours are:
Blue: NZ vs India
Red: NZ vs Eng
Yellow: NZ vs Aus
Green: Aus vs Eng
Orange: India vs Aus#Cricket #Statchat #SAvAUS #INDvENG pic.twitter.com/SYMQf5VM5f

— Michael Wagener (@Mykuhl) January 26, 2021

If England don’t win, Australia need to better India’s result. If it’s a draw, Australia need to win their series. If India win by one game, the Aussies will almost certainly need to win by two, although it will be very close, and in the scenario where India win 1-0 and Australia 2-1, it will be the latter in the final. If both results are 2-1, 0.1 PCT will separate Australia and India, with Virat Kohli’s team winning out.

If India get a ‘high-scoring’ draw, 1-1 or 2-2, a 1-0 win won’t do it for Australia. Only a 2-1 win or better will suffice

That means that maintaining a good over rate could well be vital, with a couple of penalised points liable to make a big difference. The inaugural World Test Championship is headed towards a thrilling finish. The five-day format is alive and kicking.

*With the Covid-19 pandemic disrupting the international calendar, the table is now sorted by points contested per points won (PCT)