Predicted: Winners, losers and breakout stars of the 2024 County Championship

Ben Gardner, Wisden.com managing editor

Div 1 winner: Surrey

When it looked like Lancashire would have a full season of Phil Salt and Nathan Lyon, I was tempted by them. Their issue has been winning games, and the former could inject time in while the latter can wrap up victories. Now it looks as if the two won’t feature in the same XI at any point. So, with a heavy heart, it’s the true Oval Invincibles I expect to take top spot. 

Div 1 relegated teams: Worcestershire and Somerset

Durham’s presence in the top tier makes the relegation battle fascinating, since Scott Borthwick’s side are surely too good to find themselves in trouble. Worcestershire may struggle, and Kent and Somerset are perhaps the most likely other contenders, but there are several big sides who could slip into the mire. If it is between those two non-Test clubs, I’m backing Kent’s canny recruitment, and a bumper year for my breakout star, to keep them up.

Div 2 promoted teams: Yorkshire and Sussex

Yorkshire’s off-field machinations remain the subject of much conjecture, but, without a points deduction this season, they should have enough needed to return to Division One, especially with Harry Brook around for the opening stages. Of the relegated teams, Middlesex’s financial strife means they will be without an overseas player, and while Leus du Plooy is a canny addition, the departures of club stalwarts John Simpson and Tim Murtagh will sting. Northants have a shot, but I’m going with Sussex, who have acquired Simpson, and whose young squad might now have just enough experience and nous to mount a challenge.

CC Breakout Star: Tawanda Muyeye

Muyeye made his maiden first-class century last year, and is primed to do plenty more of the same in 2024. He already has a social-media highlights reel to die for, but the sense at Kent is that, from No.4, he can piece it all together now.

CC Player of the Year: Matthew Potts

Matthew Potts takes wickets every time he bowls for Durham. He was England Lions’ standout player in India, has a point to prove after largely being overlooked by England in 2023, and will relish the challenge of Division One cricket.

Jo Harman, Wisden Cricket Monthly magazine editor

Div 1 winner: Surrey

Dull I know, but I can’t see anyone stopping Surrey becoming the first county since Yorkshire in 1968 to win three titles on the bounce. They just have too much quality, depth and experience. Of all their potential rivals, I think Durham will push them hardest but last year’s Division Two winners won’t be able to match Surrey’s consistency or cold-blooded pragmatism.

Div 1 relegated teams: Kent and Worcestershire

Worcestershire have a huge task ahead of them given the homegrown quality that’s departed for Trent Bridge and look strong favourites to finish bottom of the pile. As for who joins them, Kent’s avoidance of relegation last season owed more to the failings of Northants and Middlesex than their own successes and I can’t see their rivals being so generous this summer.

Div 2 promoted teams: Northants and Yorkshire

A tough division to call but Northants’ overseas recruitments (Karun Nair, Prithvi Shaw, Chris Tremain) should see them return to the top tier at the first time of asking. It’ll be a shootout between Yorkshire, Sussex and a revitalised Gloucestershire for second spot, with Shan Masood’s runs steering the White Rose back to Div One.