Why India will not win the 2024 T20 World Cup

When the team was picked, Rohit Sharma and Yashasvi Jaiswal were probably expected to open for India at the T20 World Cup, followed by Virat Kohli. But Jaiswal’s indifferent IPL (by his standards – he still made 435 runs at 156) coincided with Kohli’s surge (while batting at the top) in the second half of the league; and in the warm-up match against Bangladesh at New York, India did not pick Jaiswal even in Kohli’s absence.

All that probably indicates that Jaiswal may not be a sure starter. India may begin with Rohit and Kohli at the top, followed by Rishabh Pant, who outdid Sanju Samson in a shootout between India’s two glovemen – but we shall return to that later. Suryakumar Yadav is likely to bat at four.

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T20 World Cup schedule: Full fixtures list can be found here

This looks a formidable unit on paper – until we realise that Rohit’s IPL 2024 numbers (417 runs at 150) hide a recent dip. Across his last eight innings in the league, Rohit managed 156 runs at a strike rate of 128 – abysmal numbers for the highest-scoring season in IPL history.

If Kohli opens with Rohit, India will back Pant at three. This may not be the best position for him, for as Delhi Capitals captain, he preferred to bat at four or five in the 2024 IPL. His rival Samson, who prefers to bat one-drop, had a reasonable IPL (531 runs at 153), but his season petered out after a great start: he made only 60 across his last five innings, off 58 balls.

The other conundrum is around Shivam Dube, who has established himself as a six-hitter over the last few IPL seasons. He, too, had a very impressive IPL (396 runs at 162) that ended on a low (46 runs off 41 balls across five innings). India may back Jaiswal at the top and use Pant at five – a position he prefers – but that will result in them missing out on Kohli’s form as opener.

The India squad, thus, features three batters who did not strike big towards the end of the 2024 IPL. In the warm-up match, Rohit made 23 in 19 balls and Dube 14 in 16, while Samson – who may not play – fell for a solitary run. The only silver lining was a visible return to form for Hardik Pandya, but it has been some time since he impressed with the ball.

That brings us to the topic of bowling. India play their first two matches, against Ireland and Pakistan, at New York – where both South Africa and Sri Lanka found batting extremely difficult. Since pacers from both sides found assistance, India will be tempted to pick all three fast bowlers – Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj, Arshdeep Singh – along with Pandya.

That will lead to inevitable problems, because it will leave room for only two spinners. Of the bowlers, only Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel have batting credentials. If India pick one, their tail will begin at eight, never a good idea in bowler-friendly conditions. If they pick both all-rounders, they will drop Kuldeep Yadav, their best spinner, not to speak of Yuzvendra Chahal. If they get Jadeja, Axar, and Kuldeep, the axe will fall on a fast bowler – Siraj, presumably – on a pitch where pacers wreaked havoc. Each of these options, thus, comes with pitfalls.

Why India will win the 2024 T20 World Cup

Despite the issues surrounding lack of clarity in role definitions and indifferent form of several key players, there's enough pedigree in the Indian squad to go the distance at the T20 World Cup.

Virat Kohli is coming off an all-timer IPL season where he seemed to have unlocked a new level to his T20 batting. Suryakumar Yadav is the only batter with 2,000-plus runs in T20I history to strike above 170. Jasprit Bumrah has the best economy rate among fast bowlers to have picked 70-plus wickets in T20Is. And Kuldeep Yadav has the fourth-best bowling strike rate in T20I history among spinners.

To go with such world class T20 players with some of the best numbers in the business, the squad has others who are equally good and can turn game single-handedly on their days.

If the management is smart with their decision-making, they can turn the lack of clarity in roles into an advantage where players can be flexible in their positions and approach.

Rishabh Pant batting at No.3 in the warm-up game against Bangladesh was a good sign showing proactiveness on the part of the management. While he usually bats at four or five in the IPL, a lot of people consider the top order to be his spiritual home in white-ball cricket, and not without reason. At No.3, he can take on the fielding restrictions and provide India quick starts even if an early wicket falls, an area India have massively lacked in the previous T20 World Cups. Through the middle, he can then attack spin as he showed during his assault against Shakib Al Hasan in the warm-up game.

With India playing their first three games at the Nassau County Stadium, which has been extremely tough for batting so far, the combination of Suryakumar Yadav and Shivam Dube through the middle overs is as good as it can potentially get in terms of maximising the conditions. Yadav can expertly play spin all around the park, while on the slow outfield of the Nassau County Stadium, Dube's power game can give India the edge over their opponents if he gets his bearings right.

As far as bowling is concerned, Bumrah is at the peak of his powers, Arshdeep looked in excellent rhythm with the new ball, while Axar, Jadeja, and Kuldeep all had decent to good IPL campaigns with the ball. Mohammed Siraj and Yuzvendra Chahal are expected to be the backups to start off with.

Hardik Pandya, despite his extended lack of form through the IPL season with both bat and ball, has the tendency of coming good at major international tournaments. And if his performance in the warm-up game is anything to go by, he already looks to be a different player in India's shade of blue.

Ireland and Pakistan are India's toughest challengers in the first round. The conditions in New York will only bridge the gap between teams as far as chances of victory is concerned, making it tougher for India. If they manage to come out on top convincingly, ticking most if not all tactical boxes, they'll fancy themselves to go all the way through, especially with their pathway through the Super Eights and semi-finals mapped out beforehand, allowing them to plan and prepare accordingly.

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