The obvious headline from West Indies’ defeat to Scotland in the Cricket World Cup Qualifier today (July 1) is the Caribbean side’s elimination from the qualification race, but the result will have plenty of repercussions for the other teams in the competition.
Oman, along with West Indies, are now out of contention, with the latter’s elimination lamented by the cricketing world. But the other four sides in the Super Sixes stage – Netherlands, Scotland, Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe – are all in with a shot to varying degrees.
All teams have played three games each in the Super Sixes stage – here’s who needs what to qualify for the Cricket World Cup.
Sri Lanka – Six points
Games remaining: Zimbabwe, West Indies
Sri Lanka go into tomorrow’s game against Zimbabwe knowing that victory will guarantee them a place at the Cricket World Cup in India. That would put them on eight points, and while either of Scotland and Zimbabwe could reach that figure, since they play each other, they couldn’t both make it to four wins.
However, if Sri Lanka lose to Zimbabwe, they may be reliant on net run rate to qualify even if they beat West Indies in their final game. If Scotland were to beat Zimbabwe and Netherlands, that would leave all three of Scotland, Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka tied on eight points.
Sri Lanka could also lose both games and still qualify, though it would require plenty of results to go their way and a net run rate tiebreaker with one or both of Netherlands and Scotland.
Zimbabwe – Six points
Games remaining: Sri Lanka, Scotland
Though Zimbabwe are tied with Sri Lanka on six points, victory over Sri Lanka wouldn’t guarantee Zimbabwe progression as it would for the Asian side. If they were to beat Sri Lanka and lose to Scotland, then a three-way eight-point tie with Scotland and Sri Lanka would be a possibility.
However, even if Zimbabwe lose to Sri Lanka, their destiny would still be in their own hands: victory over Scotland would guarantee them a place at the World Cup.
[breakout id=”0″][/breakout]
As with Sri Lanka, it is possible for Zimbabwe to lose both games and still qualify. In that situation, a Netherlands victory over Scotland would leave Scotland, and possibly Netherlands, tied on six points.
Scotland – Four points
Games remaining: Zimbabwe, Netherlands
Victory over West Indies has kept Scotland firmly in contention, but they may be dependent on net run rate even if they win both games. Defeat to Zimbabwe could be fatal – if Sri Lanka beat Zimbabwe before that game, those two results would confirm Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe’s places at the World Cup. But victory for Sri Lanka over Zimbabwe would also put Scotland’s destiny back in their hands, independent of net run rate, since two wins would leave Zimbabwe able to achieve a maximum of six points.
As with Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe, it’s possible for Scotland to lose one of the two games and still qualify. For example, if Zimbabwe beat Scotland and Sri Lanka, West Indies also beat Sri Lanka, and Scotland beat Netherlands, that would put Scotland tied with Sri Lanka on six points.
Netherlands – Two points
Games remaining: Oman, Scotland
Netherlands’ Super Over win over West Indies will give them confidence they can take two wins from their last two games, but even that would leave them dependent on other results. If Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe each win one of their last two games, that would eliminate Netherlands from contention.
