Indian pitches traditionally assist spin more than pace, but at the 2023 World Cup, things may turn out to be the other way round.

If one includes Hardik Pandya, India have five fast bowlers in their World Cup provisional squad. Of the spinners, while Kuldeep Yadav was a certainty, at least one of Ravindra Jadeja and the now-injured Axar Patel would probably have sat out had they not had batting credentials in a team low on all-rounders.

South Africa have topped India’s fast bowler count by one, though Anrich Nortje and Sisanda Magala have to clear their fitness tests. Marco Jansen, the lone all-rounder of the side (though Aiden Markram bowls off-breaks as well), is one of six. Of course, the two spinners – Keshav Maharaj and Tabraiz Shamsi – may play together.

Despite his 11 first-class hundreds, Adil Rashid often bats at No.11 – a testimony to England’s batting depth. He and all-rounder Moeen Ali make up England’s spin attack, along with Liam Livingstone’s off-or-leg-breaks. There are six fast bowlers in that unit excluding Ben Stokes, who will come in as a batter. They also have Jofra Archer as a travelling reserve.

Barring Adam Zampa, the closest Australia have to a specialist spinner is Ashton Agar, whose 21 wickets from 22 ODIs have come at 45.61. Of course, Travis Head – another injured cricketer – and Glenn Maxwell, and even Steve Smith, bowl some spin. They boast of seven pacers including three all-rounders.

No Pakistan spinner averages under 30 in ODIs since the start of 2022, and some of them would not have played but for their batting. Their attack has depended heavily on Shaheen Shah Afridi, Haris Rauf, and Naseem Shah – their fast bowlers – of whom Naseem may miss the World Cup. If he does, he will almost certainly be replaced by a fast bowler.

Mitchell Santner would have made it for New Zealand even if he had no batting credentials, but Rachin Ravindra was unlikely to. Along with Ish Sodhi and the part-timers, they make up the spin attack that will accompany four specialist fast bowlers (Tim Southee may make for another pacer) and all-rounder Jimmy Neesham.

Bangladesh are yet to name their provisional squad, and will probably have as many spinners as pacers, but Allan Donald’s protégés have done enough to ensure Mustafizur Rahman, no less, is no longer a certainty.

Sri Lanka’s attack will depend on the availability of their bowlers, too many of whom are currently undergoing injuries.

The counterexamples to this pace-heavy strategy – Afghanistan and the Netherlands – are the teams with the least exposure to the highest level of ODI cricket.

Pace at the cost of spin is not what teams usually do for a World Cup in India. Of course, fast bowlers need better workload management and backup over the course of a long schedule in a vast, diverse country, but the reason perhaps runs deeper than that.

A curious trend

Indian pitches have traditionally assisted spin more than pace. Pacers bowl in short bursts here, unlike spinners, who bowl long spells. All that is true – but in Test cricket, not ODIs, with the SG ball that retains a prominent seam until late.

From October 1, 2011, the ICC had introduced a change to combat mid-innings discolouring, and subsequent replacement, of the white ball. Every ODI innings began with a new ball from each end, ensuring the ball did not get older than 25 overs. Given that spinners usually bowl in the middle overs, it made things more difficult for them.

However, reverse swing – a key factor in Indian conditions – also lost some edge, so things were somewhat edged out. But on July 5, 2015, the ICC brought another major change: it removed with the batting powerplay.

No longer could the batting side have the extra fielder inside the 30-yard circle when they wanted to, which was almost always the last ten overs. There were still slog-fests at the ‘death’ – a phase where teams often relied on fast bowlers – but they became less violent.

This changed things. The edge fast bowlers had lost was somewhat compensated. Unfortunately, this meant death-knell for spin.

ODIs in India	Pace average	Spin average
January 1, 2010 – July 4, 2015	37.68	35.79
July 5, 2015 and later	34.76	39.37

 

The change forced teams to back their seamers more, even in India. True, there was less reverse swing, but with the field spread out, teams still backed fast bowlers more at the death – and obviously at the start, for the new ball retained its shine longer.

With dew always a key factor in India, the blow fell on spinners.  Of the two kinds, wrist-spinners stood a better chance, for they do not rely on the seam for turn.

The seam of the Kookaburra, the ball with a near-global monopoly in white-ball international cricket, stops assisting finger-spin some way into the innings. By the time the finger-spinners have a go, the Kookaburra seam often gets embedded into the surface.

Some finger-spinners still held their own. Some, because they could contribute with the bat. Some, because the teams did not have great wrist-spinners. But overall, around the world, specialist finger-spinners faded out.

As a reason, teams have been stacking their squads with fast bowlers and wrist-spinners – and, in some cases, finger-spinners who can bat a bit. This World Cup will, thus, feature as much pace as spin.

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