Australia have officially postponed their proposed three-Test series in South Africa, and the decision has significant ramifications for the race to the World Test Championship final.

With Australia now having no more World Test Championship fixtures scheduled, they will finish with a PCT (points won per points contested) of 69.17, unless there is an unlikely last-minute rescheduling of their tour of South Africa. That would put them fractionally behind New Zealand, who have 70 PCT. Since it’s impossible for both of India and England, who start their series against each other on Friday, February 5, to cross 70 PCT, that means New Zealand are through to the World Test Championship final, barring any more changes to the calendar.

Today we informed Cricket South Africa that we believe we have no choice but to postpone the forthcoming Qantas Tour of South Africa due to the coronavirus pandemic. Full statement 👇 pic.twitter.com/mYjqNpkYjp

— Cricket Australia (@CricketAus) February 2, 2021

Gallingly for Australia, if it weren’t for a four points penalty during their series against India due to a slow over rate, they would be level with New Zealand on 70 PCT, and since they have a superior RPWR (runs per wicket ratio), it would be them in the final. As it is, they will have to await the result of the India-England series to see if one of those two teams can overtake them.

Permutations: Who needs what to make the World Test Championship final

If India and England draw: Australia are in the final
If England win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1: Australia are in the final
If England win 3-0, 3-1 or 4-0: England are in the final
If India win 1-0: Australia are in the final
If India win by any other margin: India are in the final

If England win 3-1 or India win 2-1, they would be four and two points ahead of Australia, meaning another over-rate penalty could yet prove decisive.