England captain Jos Buttler won the toss and elected to bat first against Pakistan in the penultimate game of the World Cup group stage, to further hit, but not quite eliminate, Babar Azam’s side’s semi-final hopes.

Pakistan had beaten New Zealand despite conceding 400 to keep their World Cup hopes flickering, but the Black Caps’ thumping of Sri Lanka has made their task of reaching the top four on net run rate steep.

Their chances looked better, though still not at all good, if batting first, when a victory in the region of 287 runs – a margin exceeded twice in the 2023 World Cup so far – would have been enough to see them progress. Batting second, England making even 200 would see Pakistan needing above six a ball to exceed New Zealand’s NRR.

However, it is still mathematically possible for Pakistan to overtake New Zealand. If Pakistan were to skittle England for 0, and then score a single off their first ball, their net run rate would reach 0.758 – just ahead of New Zealand’s 0.743.

The theoretical maximum Pakistan can concede is 168. Then, if they hit six a ball for 29 balls, they would reach 174, and finish on a net run rate of 0.744. Were England to make 169 in that scenario, Pakistan’s NRR would dip below New Zealands. And if Pakistan hit six a ball for 30 balls to reach 180, again, England scoring 174 would see them dip just below New Zealand’s NRR.

England, meanwhile, still have something at stake. A victory would all but confirm their place at the 2025 Champions Trophy, while if they keep the margin of defeat small, they would give themselves a chance of staying ahead of two of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Netherlands on net run rate, assuming one of those last two fails to beat Australia or India respectively.

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