New Zealand chased 172 in 23.2 overs to all but seal the fourth semi-final berth at the 2023 World Cup ahead of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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New Zealand came to Bengaluru with eight points from eight matches. Their net run rate (+0.398) was significantly superior to Pakistan’s +0.036 and Afghanistan’s -0.338, which meant that a significant win would virtually keep them in the top four.
At the M Chinnaswamy Stadium, New Zealand bowled out Sri Lanka for 171, and chased down the target in 23.2 overs to boost their net run rate to +0.743, nearly unassailable for both Pakistan and Afghanistan.
However, all is not lost for either Pakistan or Afghanistan – mathematically, at least.
CWC semi-final qualification criterion for New Zealand, Pakistan, Afghanistan
To go past New Zealand’s +0.743, Pakistan need to win by a colossal margin. If they bat first, Pakistan need to beat England by about 287 runs. In other words, if they score 350, they need to bowl out England for 63.
Bowling first will make things almost improbable or them. In that case, Pakistan will have to chase the target in an improbable time (3.4 overs for a target of 150, 4.3 overs for 200, 5.2 overs for 250, and so on).
On the other hand, Afghanistan need to win by roughly 438 runs. To sum up, they have to amass 450 and bowl out South Africa for 12. They will be knocked out if they bowl first.
Note: The margin of runs may change (by roughly one run) depending on exactly how many Pakistan or Afghanistan score if they bat first.
CWC semi-final: Who plays whom, when, and where?
If New Zealand qualify, they will play India – who have already secured the top spot – in the first semi-final on November 15, at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai.
Australia and South Africa will share the second and third places, though not necessarily in that order. Irrespective of who finishes in second place, they will play in the other semi-final on November 16, at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata.
