South Africa’s implosion against the Netherlands in Dharamsala was of epic proportions. It was a calamity that was always likely to happen at some point, and they have few options to stop it happening again, writes Katya Witney – but that doesn’t mean they should panic.

It was all going so well in South Africa’s World Cup until approximately a third of the way through their third game. They were the tournament bolters, the big hitters no one had quite seen coming, once again promising to vanquish the demons of their past failures. The brashness with which they thumped a World Cup record score against Sri Lanka before deepening Australia’s misery pointed to a team for whom it was all falling into place.

But still, within the hope were concerns that kept most from billing South Africa as out-and-out favourites. The Anrich Nortje-less bowling was untested, having been given big scores to defend in their first two outings. Marco Jansen in at No.7 left little room for error if the explosive batting line-up fizzled out early. The Netherlands added a weakness against spin to that list.

Thirty overs after putting the Netherlands into bat, South Africa had them six wickets down and had kept the run rate to just over four an over. But a rapid 64-run eighth-wicket partnership blew their plans apart, and confirmed the concerns as a reality. Roelof van der Merwe battered Gerald Coetzee for back-to-back fours and a six, taking advantage of the short length and pace-off deliveries served up. Scott Edwards gave Kagiso Rabada the same treatment at the other end – again, pace off and short. That was before Lungi Ngidi bowled an eight-ball over, and Aryan Dutt joined the party.

South Africa were predictable. They stuck with the same plan despite being carted over the short boundaries. There was no attempt at intervention to push their lengths forward, try and hit the stumps or generally do anything different. At no point did Temba Bavuma, or one of South Africa’s other experienced heads visibly tell Coetzee that banging a length in on a slow pitch with tailenders looking to thrash wasn’t the best option.

Perhaps there was a touch of over-confidence after their early success, that they could chase down any total set for them. But if England’s Afghanistan meltdown didn’t teach South Africa anything, then their lessons will have to be learned through lived experience.

2022 T20 World Cup – Netherlands beat South Africa by 13 runs 🇳🇱

2023 ODI World Cup – Netherlands beat South Africa by 38 runs 🇳🇱

Two incredible results! 🍊#SAvNED #CWC23 pic.twitter.com/s7k9QHsnoa

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) October 17, 2023

Given how quickly the Netherlands clocked onto the opportunity to score runs at the death against South Africa’s attack, it’s not hard to work out where other sides will be queuing up to target them. They next face England on Sunday, who have the option of putting an extra batter in their attack and hedging their bets that they can out-muscle them. That’s before they get to India in a few weeks.

South Africa have few options to shuffle their pack of seamers. The two pacers they have in their squad to choose from if they do decide their attack has too many holes are Lizaad Williams, who conceded 64 runs off eight overs in his only ODI cap, and Andile Phehlukwayo.

While Phehlukwayo isn’t a death specialist, he could help with the other brewing weakness highlighted today – that unless their top order fires, South Africa simply don’t bat deep enough. Once Heinrich Klaasen lost his wicket today, the result was a near-forgone conclusion. Jansen in at seven is a slot too high, especially considering the combination of Rabada, Coetzee and Keshav Maharaj behind him.

But Phehlukwayo isn’t the answer if the top-order continue to flounder when faced with spin. Bavuma was bogged down against the Dutch spinner’s opening bursts, facing 31 balls for his 16 runs. It compounds a miserable cross-format record in Asia for him. In ODIs alone, he averages 26.25 from the five matches he’s played there and strikes at 67.30. Rassie van der Dussen’s shot, a reverse sweep when South Africa were already three down, showed how quickly freneticism can take over in the absence of the usual early runs.

The problems exposed by the Netherlands were numerous, but not unknown. South Africa went into this tournament knowing full well if they were to win it, they would have to do so with a group of specialists and without several of their first picks. There’s no need to panic yet, with two wins on the board, but those warning sirens are wailing increasingly louder.

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