Analysis: What Netherlands’ upset win over South Africa means for the World Cup semi-finals race
by Ben Gardner
@Ben_Wisden 3 minute read
Netherlands have pulled off the result of the 2023 World Cup so far, shocking South Africa by 38 runs to secure one of the biggest upsets in the history of ODI cricket.
Afghanistan’s win over England was hailed as a significant upset, but this result trumps that, and could have a big impact on how the tournament pans out.
Before today, it had seemed as if the league table was stratifying into three layers, with India, New Zealand and the Proteas out in front, England, Australia and Pakistan competing for fourth, and Sri Lanka, Netherlands, Afghanistan and Bangladesh bringing up the rear.
This match, and Afghanistan’s win over England, could close both gaps. On Saturday, South Africa play England in a game that will now take on a new enormity. Should the Proteas win that, they will feel back on track. But should England win, they will be in a full scrap for third and fourth.
The result will also offer hope anew to the supposed bottom four that a semi-final push might be possible. In particular, it’s not impossible Afghanistan could come back into contention. One of their two losses so far was to India, something of a free hit. Now that they have broken their psychological World Cup barrier, wins over Sri Lanka, who have struggled thus far, and Netherlands, impressive today but still underdogs, would take them to three wins. Their last two games, each inside the final six days of the group stage, are against Australia and South Africa. If they play well, they could go into that with a semi-final push still on the line.
Equally, why shouldn’t Netherlands, who have always been adamant that they are not just here to make up the numbers, push for the last four? Like Afghanistan, one of their defeats came against a front-runner in New Zealand. It remains unlikely that either will make the semis. But it doesn’t feel out of the question either.
— Matt Roller (@mroller98) October 16, 2022
The World Cup is fully open. This was predicted of a subcontinental tournament which should act as a leveller, but it hadn’t panned out that way as the first 10 days largely followed form. Now, only India and New Zealand are unbeaten, and only Sri Lanka are winless.
This actually makes it harder to work out how many wins are needed to get into the semi-finals. Three dominant teams could make it possible to squeak in with four defeats, whereas if everyone can beat everyone, it’s possible for several teams to be tied on six wins.
What’s not in doubt is that a tournament that had been slumbering, played out in front of sparse crowds in vast stadiums and delivered in bungling fashion, has now sparked into life.
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