Who is on track to contest the 2023 World Test Championship final?

Eight of the competition’s nine sides have series in the next few weeks, the only side with an empty fixture list in this period are defending champions New Zealand.

With that mind, let’s take a look at who is best placed to make a run to the final.

Points structure

The point-allocation system has changed since the inaugural edition of the competition. Each Test holds an equal number of points; 12 for a win, six for a tie, four for a draw and none for a defeat. The table is not organised in order of the total number of points accumulated by each team as sides do not contest an equal number of Tests. Instead, it is ordered by the ‘percentage of points won out of points contested’ (PCT).

It is worth noting that over-rate penalties are strict. England have lost half of their points tally to over-rate penalties; India have lost three points.

So, who’s most likely to qualify for the final?

In the first edition of the competition, India and New Zealand qualified for the final with 72.2 and 70 PCT respectively. Australia missed out on the final on 69.2 while England finished fourth on 61.4. Although from what is admittedly a small sample size, that gives us a rough idea of what’s required to make the final.

Let’s start with the teams who most likely won’t make the final. Given their recent results, it is unlikely that any of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh or West Indies will seriously challenge for a spot in the final. Those three sides finished well adrift at the bottom of the 2019-2021 cycle and would need an extraordinary turnaround in form to make the top two this time around.

England are rooted to the bottom of the table and even if they win all 13 of their remaining Tests and don’t incur any further penalty points, the highest PCT they can finish on is 62.87; it is therefore extremely unlikely that England will qualify for the final.

Defending champions New Zealand are also up against it having drawn at home to Bangladesh and South Africa as well as also losing to India so far in this WTC cycle. A 100 per cent record in their remaining seven Tests would give them a pct of 71.79. Should they lose even just a solitary Test, that number would fall below the 70-mark that just about got them into the 2021 final. Securing maximum points from their run-in will be difficult; they are still to play three Tests in England, two in Pakistan and two at home to Sri Lanka.

That leaves Australia, India, South Africa and Pakistan.

India are currently contesting their fourth series of six in this cycle of fixtures. So far, they have beaten New Zealand 1-0 at home, lost 2-1 away to South Africa, currently lead England 2-1 away (the fifth Test will be played this summer) and Sri Lanka 1-0 at home with one Test to play. Should, as expected, they take that final Sri Lanka Test and beat Bangladesh 2-0, they will have a PCT of 64.7 with five Tests to play – one away to England and four at home to Australia. A defeat in England and a 3-1 victory over Australia would leave a final PCT of 63.42; a run of five wins from five would leave them on 74.53, a figure that would almost guarantee qualification.

South Africa have two home series left to play where they will start as overwhelming favourites, against Bangladesh and West Indies. A clean sleep across those two series will given them a PCT of 77.78 with just series against England and Australia to play. A 2-1 defeat in one of those series and a 2-1 victory in the other, would give them a final 66.67 – a tally that could feasibly see them qualify for the final.

Pakistan are harder to predict given the lack of Test cricket they’ve played at home in recent times. They have three home series remaining – including the ongoing affair against Australia. Pakistan are also set to host England and New Zealand. At the time of writing, they have nine Tests left to play. Six wins and three defeats from those nine Tests would leave them with a PCT of 66.67. Two of those games are away to Sri Lanka.

That leaves Australia, the current table-toppers. They have a lot of cricket ahead of them – the ongoing Pakistan series is just their second in the current WTC cycle. Their dominant Ashes win puts them in a good position but given their lack of recent overseas Test cricket  – the away Pakistan series is their first abroad in nearly three years – it is hard to predict how they’ll perform outside Australia. As well as the Pakistan series, they have four Tests scheduled in India and a further two in Sri Lanka, as well as home series pencilled in against South Africa and West Indies.

At this point in time, there’s not a huge amount to separate India, Pakistan, South Africa and Australia.