With the T20 World Cup just over a month away, here’s who’s shaping up to compete for the title, who the surprise challengers could be, and who’s fallen away since the last edition.

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The nature of the crowded white ball international and franchise schedules, as well as having a T20 World Cup so soon after a 50-over tournament, means that few sides have had all of their first-choice XIs available to them for T20I series since the last edition. With this in mind, favourites for the tournament are hard to identify, but on individual performances and that of sides cobbled together for recent international series, here’s how the land lies.

The frontrunners

England

Although the reigning champions have been on a run of lean T20I form since they lifted the trophy in Melbourne, they should still go into the tournament as one of the main contenders. Of the 12 T20Is they’ve played since the final in 2022, they’ve lost eight of them, but on no occasion have they had a squad resembling full strength to select from. Their batting lineup will be packed with big hitters, with Will Jacks and Jonny Bairstow both hitting IPL centuries in the last week, and Jos Buttler and Phil Salt also both with over 300 runs in the tournament so far.

There’s hope for a Jofra Archer return with Mark Wood also forming part of a fearsome pace attack, and Adil Rashid, currently ranked top T20I bowler in the World, set for a probable last hurrah. There’s also the sheer depth to which England will bat, allrounders likely to makeup the predominant part of their squad, something which will be near-unique to their XI in the tournament. Although Ben Stokes’ absence leaves a considerable hole from their victorious side 18 months ago.

South Africa

Never far away from the top set, South Africa showed the power in their lineup during the 50-over World Cup. Few are hitting it better in the world than Heinrich Klaasen has been over the last year, with David Miller and Tristan Stubbs also in the mix. Aiden Markram has also emerged as a white-ball powerhouse over the last 12 months, and the familiar lineup of Kagiso Rabada, Anrich Nortje and Lungi Ngidi is also packed with firepower. Their spin options are more limited, with Tabraiz Shamsi and Keshav Maharaj set to take on the majority of the burden. That could be an area sides look to target.

India

The proximity of the IPL to the tournament adds an intriguing layer to India’s selection. To go with the established heads, or back the last minute bolters? Largely India’s side will be packed with their usual star names. Virat Kohli’s inclusion has come under question, but his runs in the IPL have all-but reserved his place. Still with a few places up for grabs, there’s more than enough fire-power and depth to put them firmly into contention.

Australia

Australia’s squad is one of the toughest to predict ahead of the tournament. However, their ranks are boosted by several of their key names coming into form in the IPL. Travis Head has formed half of a lethal opening partnership for SRH, while Jake Fraser-McGurk has forced himself into contention with a string of powerful knocks. Their bowling options are less clear. Mitchell Starc has struggled to return to the lethal T20 force he has been in the past during the tournament. While the fairytale of holding ICC trophies in all three formats beckons, there are plenty of questions for Australia to answer before then.

The chasing pack

West Indies

Although they had a chastening outing 18 months ago where they failed to qualify for the main tournament, on home soil and with a decent quota of players in form, the West Indies could be a dark horse of this year’s competition. They won a five-match series against England in December, with Nicholas Pooran and Andre Russell starring, as well as some new names establishing themselves. Amidst the chaos that often engulfs West Indies cricket, there feels to have been an upwards trajectory emerge over the last six months.

New Zealand

New Zealand have announced their squad with Kane Williamson back in at the helm after an injury plagued year. Trent Boult and Tim Southee are also back in, but Kyle Jamieson and Adam Milne have both been injured out of the tournament. Tom Latham and Tim Seifert have also missed out, with a lot of hope placed on Rachin Ravindra after his rapid rise to all-format mainstay. Ultimately, while there’s plenty of experience, it feels like a slightly disjointed squad that’s progressively struggling to keep up with it’s richer rivals in the way it once did.

Pakistan

After reaching the final in 2022, the instability that has engulfed the national side makes it hard to predict a repeat. Their most recent assignment, against a B-tier New Zealand side, almost ended in defeat, with Pakistan scraping a series-draw in the final match. With Shaheen Afridi ousted as captain after one series and Babar Azam back in at the helm, there’s no continuity for them to draw upon. Equally, the un-retirements of Mohammad Amir and Imad Wasim add to an aura of uncertainty, and conversations over strike-rates and long tails still loom large. Never count out Pakistan, but temper your expectations.

Outside bets to do well

Afghanistan

Another decent run in the T20 World Cup will seal Afghanistan’s graduation following their incredible campaign in the 50-over edition, where they were two points off the top four. Their top-order of Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran is an exciting prospect, along with their quota of formidable spinners. However, they have a difficult group which includes both West Indies and New Zealand. Any slip-ups will cost them and make their path to the Super Eights much more tricky.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka’s run-in has been marked with injuries, most notably to captain Wanindu Hasaranga, who is expected to be fit for the tournament. Angelo Mathews is also expected to be named in the squad after his comeback to T20Is earlier this year. While the squad looks more settled than it did in 2022, Sri Lanka are in a pretty open group with South Africa, Bangladesh and the Netherlands, a couple of unexpected defeats could put them right into the mix.

Backmarkers

Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s best asset for the tournament will be their battery of fast bowlers, boosted by the return from injury of Mohammad Saifuddin. Shakib Al Hasan is also likely to return to the format, although he hasn’t played a T20I since July 2023. Their most recent T20I series was a 2-1 loss against Sri Lanka, the grudge clash of all grudge clashes. They will warm up for the tournament with a five-match series against Zimbabwe, and a three-match series against the USA.

Others

20 sides will feature in this year’s main tournament, making it a much bigger competition than the 12 who made it through in 2022. While it’s a hard sell to see any of the other sides challenging for a place in the Super Eights, the most likely among them to do so are the Netherlands – who pulled out a win against South Africa in the 50-over tournament last year, and Ireland, who will have to contend with Pakistan and India in their group.

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