The 2022 T20 World Cup continued to produce nail-biters on Sunday. At Brisbane, Bangladesh beat Zimbabwe twice, by four runs, and then three runs, to stay in the hunt to jump to second place on the Super 12 Group 2 points table. Pakistan restricted the Netherlands to 91-9, but took 13.5 overs to chase down the target. And despite scoring only 133-9, India kept South Africa at bay for 19.4 overs.

No team has qualified for the semi-finals from Group 2 of the Super 12s yet, but only one team has been eliminated. With six matches to go, this is still a five-way race. The permutations are simple for some teams; not so much for others.

Here is what the points table looks like at this point.

South Africa: Two wins will guarantee them not only a semi-final berth but also the top spot. Even one win is very likely to (they do play the Netherlands), for it will take them to seven points. They may still be eliminated after that, but if and only if two teams out of India, Zimbabwe, Pakistan, and Bangladesh not only finish with at least seven points and net run rate superior to South Africa’s +2.772 (with +0.844, India are closest). Theoretically possible, of course, but then, so are a lot of things.

India: Four points and a reasonable net run rate, with matches against Bangladesh and Zimbabwe to be played. Two wins will see India through. The net run rate will come in very handy if they lose one of the matches. However, if Bangladesh beat both India and Pakistan, India will not qualify unless South Africa lose a match. Of course, they will play the last match – against Zimbabwe – which tilts the scales in their favour.

Bangladesh: Bangladesh are third, but a dismal net run rate (-1.533) means that they have to beat both India and Pakistan to be absolutely certain of a qualification berth. If South Africa win even one of their two matches, beating only India will not help Bangladesh: a win against Zimbabwe will enable India to draw level on points and sail past their net run rate. If they beat only Pakistan, India will almost certainly make it.

Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe need to win both matches. If they beat only the Netherlands, they will have to expect South Africa to lose both matches and drop below them in net run rate. If they beat only India, they will have to win by a huge margin, then expect either the above outcome for South Africa or India-Bangladesh to be a washout. Oh, and they must expect Pakistan to lose a match as well.

Pakistan: Winning both matches is where it starts for Pakistan. Since South Africa will finish above them, Pakistan will qualify only if they are above every other team in both points and net run rate. Their best bet lies in at least one (if not both) of Bangladesh and Zimbabwe beating India. However, before beating India, Zimbabwe would have to lose against the Netherlands. It is complicated.

Netherlands: They will finish behind South Africa and at least one of India and Bangladesh. In other words, they are eliminated.

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