The 2-0 win against New Zealand catapulted Sri Lanka to third place on the WTC 2023-25 points table: their PCT of 55.56 not too far behind Australia’s 62.5. New Zealand, on the other hand, slipped to seventh place with a PCT of 37.5.

Sri Lanka’s remaining matches

Two Tests in South Africa: November-December 2024
Two Tests at home against Australia: January-February 2025

What do Sri Lanka need to do to qualify for the final?

To make it to the top two, Sri Lanka have to finish with a PCT higher than at least one of India and Australia. Overtaking Australia is easier for two reasons. One, Australia are below India on the points table. And two, since Sri Lanka play Australia, they will be able to impact the PCT of both teams with every win.

However, this also means Sri Lanka will as good as have to win against Australia. Let us give them 2-0 there.

Now, if they also beat South Africa 2-0, they will jump to 69.23 and almost certainly qualify for the final. Depending on the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, one of Australia or India may surpass 69.23, but not both.

If Sri Lanka draw 1-1 in South Africa, they will finish on 61.54. If they win 1-0, they will reach 64.10. If they lose 0-1, they will finish on 56.41. However, if they lose 0-2, not only will they come down to 53.85 but South Africa will jump to 54.17 (though they have other series to play).

Let us, for now, assume that Sri Lanka draw 1-1 in South Africa and beat Australia 2-0. That will, as we have seen, give them 61.54. How many teams can overtake them?

Even if the Kanpur Test against Bangladesh is rained out, a 3-0 win against New Zealand will take India to 75 ahead of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. Now, if Australia beat India 4-1, Sri Lanka will finish ahead of both India and Australia, who will be tied on 60.53 each.

In fact, if South Africa beat both Bangladesh and Pakistan 2-0, they will go to 61.11 – in other words, there may be a Sri Lanka-South Africa final!

However, this will be possible if and only if Australia beat India 4-1. If Australia win 4-0, they will reach 62.28. If they win 3-1, India will go to 62.28. However, in both cases, Sri Lanka will qualify.

Can other teams surpass Sri Lanka’s 61.54? South Africa is the biggest threat, but as we have seen, a 1-1 draw will help Sri Lanka keep them at bay. The most Bangladesh can reach is 59.03 (assuming Kanpur is a draw), while England cannot surpass 57.95.

Two 3-0 sweeps against India and England, on the other hand, will take New Zealand to 64.29 – improbable, but not impossible. Five wins and a draw will take their PCT to 59.52.

Follow Wisden for all cricket updates, including live scores, match stats, quizzes and more. Stay up to date with the latest cricket news, player updates, team standings, match highlights, video analysis and live match odds.