Hypothetical World Test Championship

The World Test Championship began in 2019. Here, we look at how the points tables of hypothetical World Test Championships would have looked like for every two-year cycle starting from 2001.

The points system

The current points system of the WTC, where each Test is a unit with a maximum of 12 points available for the winning side, is the one we will use for calculating the points table for every cycle. The current system also has the three home and three away series restriction, which may or may not be applicable for the hypothetical tables we'll generate since no such restriction was in place before the WTC began.

No points penalties for overrate or any other offences will be taken into consideration. The tie-breaker system that will be used will be the one described in the 2023-2025 WTC Playing Conditions. The first point of difference to be considered in case of a tie in the points percentage (PCT) will be the number of series wins. If there is a tie on that as well, the next condition to be considered will be the "percentage of available points earned by each team in their away matches (“Away Points Percentage”)". If a tie is still not broken, the final criteria that would be taken into account will be the team's ICC rankings at the end of the cycle.

Also read: Explained: What happens if there’s a points tie in the WTC final race?

Since Afghanistan, Ireland, and Zimbabwe are not part of the World Test Championship setup, matches involving any of these teams won't be taken into consideration for the calculation of the WTC tables.

2017-2019

First series: South Africa's tour of England, 2017
Last series: Bangladesh's tour of New Zealand, 2018-19

Team Mat Won Lost Draw Points PCT
New Zealand 11 8 1 2 104 78.79
South Africa 20 11 9 0 132 55.00
India 20 10 7 3 132 55.00
England 27 14 11 2 176 54.32
Australia 19 9 7 3 120 52.63
Sri Lanka 24 8 11 5 116 40.28
West Indies 17 6 10 1 76 37.25
Bangladesh 12 3 8 1 40 27.78
Pakistan 12 3 8 1 40 27.78

South Africa won four out of seven series in this period, while India won four out of six, which would give India the upper hand according to the first tie-breaking criteria for the second spot.

If we go to the next criteria, which is away points percentage, India won seven, lost seven, and drew one from 15 away Tests, while South Africa won one and lost five from six, which again would lead to India overtaking South Africa to qualify for the final alongside table-toppers New Zealand.

Final: New Zealand v India

2015-2017

First series: England's tour of West Indies, 2015
Last series: Pakistan's tour of West Indies, 2017

Team Mat Won Lost Draw Points PCT
India 25 17 2 6 228 76.00
Australia 28 15 10 3 192 57.14
Pakistan 23 11 10 2 140 50.72
South Africa 21 8 6 7 124 49.21
England 31 12 14 5 164 44.09
New Zealand 21 7 10 4 100 39.68
Sri Lanka 21 8 12 1 100 39.68
Bangladesh 12 2 6 4 40 27.78
West Indies 20 3 13 4 52 21.67

India would have been the table-toppers of the 2015-2017 cycle of the World Test Championship. In this period, they lost only two games, one at Galle against Sri Lanka and one in Pune against Australia. They played eight series in this timeframe, including two one-off Tests against Bangladesh, and remained unbeaten across the eight, winning seven and drawing one.

Australia would have finished second on the table, managing 15 wins and 10 losses from 28 Tests in the period, comfortably ahead of third-placed Pakistan, who would have finished with a PCT of 50.72, nearly seven points less than Australia's.

Australia's record, however, was skewed in this cycle. They played nine series, winning six, and losing three, all three of their series defeats coming against heavyweights England, India, and South Africa.

Final: India v Australia

2013-2015

First series: Ashes (Australia's tour of England), 2013
Last series: Sri Lanka's tour of New Zealand, 2014-15

Team Mat Won Lost Draw Points PCT
New Zealand 15 8 2 5 116 64.44
South Africa 12 6 3 3 84 58.33
Australia 19 9 6 4 124 54.39
Sri Lanka 13 5 4 4 76 48.72
Pakistan 12 5 5 2 68 47.22
England 17 6 7 4 88 43.14
India 15 3 7 5 56 31.11
West Indies 13 3 8 2 44 28.21
Bangladesh 6 0 3 3 12 16.67

New Zealand would have topped the 2013-15 table as well, having lost only two Tests out of 15 between the 2013 Champions Trophy and the 2015 World Cup. Australia won more Tests than them in this period, but would have finished third on PCT, just behind South Africa, who won half of their 12 games.

New Zealand won four and drew two out of the six series they played in this cycle, while South Africa won three, lost one, and drew one out of five, their only series defeat coming at home against Australia.

Final: New Zealand v South Africa

2011-2013

First series: Pakistan's tour of West Indies, 2011
Last series: New Zealand's tour of England, 2013

Team Mat Won Lost Draw Points PCT
South Africa 19 12 2 5 164 71.93
Australia 24 12 7 5 164 56.94
England 27 12 7 8 176 54.32
Pakistan 16 7 5 4 100 52.08
India 24 10 10 4 136 47.22
West Indies 20 6 8 6 96 40.00
Sri Lanka 24 5 10 9 96 33.33
New Zealand 18 2 11 5 44 20.37
Bangladesh 8 0 6 2 8 8.33

South Africa lost just two Tests during what was their golden period between 2011 and 2013, one against Australia in Johannesburg and one against Sri Lanka in Durban. They won six and drew one out of the seven series they played in this period between the 2011 World Cup and the 2013 Champions Trophy and were comfortably the best team in the cycle.

Australia and England would have fought closely for the second spot, with Australia edging out England by a margin of around 2.6 percentage points. Both won 12 and lost seven games, but Australia won 12 out of 24, and England could win 12 out of 27, with the three extra draws costing them.

Final: South Africa v Australia

2009-2011

First series: West Indies' tour of England, 2009
Last series: Pakistan's tour of New Zealand, 2010-11

Team Mat Won Lost Draw Points PCT
England 24 15 4 5 200 69.44
India 18 10 3 5 140 64.81
Australia 22 10 8 4 136 51.52
Sri Lanka 14 5 3 6 84 50.00
South Africa 14 5 3 6 84 50.00
Pakistan 19 4 10 5 68 29.82
New Zealand 13 2 7 4 40 25.64
Bangladesh 9 2 7 0 24 22.22
West Indies 13 0 8 5 20 12.82

England would have topped the 2009-2011 cycle of the World Test Championship, starting in May 2009 and running to before the 2011 World Cup. England won 15 Tests in this period, five more than the next best - India and Australia. They won six out of the seven series they played, including an away Ashes, something they've not been able to replicate since. The only series they didn't win ended in a 1-1 draw against South Africa in South Africa.

India were the second best team of the cycle, losing only three out of 18 Tests. They didn't lose a single series as well in this period, but drew three out of seven, twice against South Africa - home and away - and one against Sri Lanka away.

Final: England v India

2007-2009

First series: West Indies' tour of England, 2007
Last series: India's tour of New Zealand, 2008-09

Team Mat Won Lost Draw Points PCT
South Africa 24 15 6 3 192 66.67
Sri Lanka 17 9 4 4 124 60.78
Australia 21 11 6 4 148 58.73
India 27 10 5 12 168 51.85
England 27 8 7 12 144 44.44
New Zealand 19 4 9 6 72 31.58
West Indies 19 3 8 8 68 29.82
Pakistan 7 0 2 5 20 23.81
Bangladesh 15 0 13 2 8 4.44

South Africa would have topped the 2007-2009 cycle of the hypothetical World Test Championship, ranging between the 2007 World Cup and March 2009. This was the start of the Proteas' golden era. The won 15 out of the 24 Tests they played in this period, four more than the next best Australia.

Sri Lanka would have finished second in this cycle, riding on the back of the career peaks of some of the their greats including Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene. They lost only four Tests out of 17 in this period, the least for any team that played more than 10 games. This period also signalled the beginning of the downfall of Australia, as they entered a transition phase. They were still very competitive, but would have just about finished outside the top two of the World Test Championship, if it happened.

Final: South Africa v Sri Lanka

2005-2007

First series: Bangladesh's tour of England, 2005
Last series: Pakistan's tour of South Africa, 2006-07

Team Mat Won Lost Draw Points PCT
Australia 21 16 2 3 204 80.95
Sri Lanka 18 10 5 3 132 61.11
Pakistan 20 8 6 6 120 50.00
India 16 5 4 7 88 45.83
New Zealand 8 3 3 2 44 45.83
England 25 9 10 6 132 44.00
South Africa 17 6 9 2 80 39.22
West Indies 17 1 11 5 32 15.69
Bangladesh 8 0 8 0 0 0.00

The last cycle of Australia's dominance would see them rack up a whopping PCT of 80.95, winning 16 and losing only two out of 21 Tests. The second-placed team, Sri Lanka, would have finished nearly 20 points behind. The only two Tests Australia lost in this period were against England in the 2005 Ashes. That was also the only series loss they suffered, winning each of the five other series they played.

The top two teams of this hypothetical WTC cycle would also go on to be the top two teams of the actual ODI World Cup in 2007, securing their legacies as the two best teams of the period across formats.

Final: Australia v Sri Lanka

2003-2005

First series: Sri Lanka's tour of West Indies, 2003
Last series: Sri Lanka's tour of New Zealand, 2004-05

Team Mat Won Lost Draw Points PCT
Australia 23 16 2 5 212 76.81
England 26 16 4 6 216 69.23
India 20 8 5 7 124 51.67
Pakistan 18 8 7 3 108 50.00
South Africa 27 9 8 10 148 45.68
New Zealand 19 4 9 6 72 31.58
Sri Lanka 16 3 7 6 60 31.25
West Indies 20 2 12 6 48 20.00
Bangladesh 13 0 12 1 4 2.56

Australia were, unsurprisingly the best team of the cycle, again losing only two out of 23 Tests they played between June 2003 and May 2005. This time, however, England weren't too far behind, having an exceptional two-year period as well. They played three more Tests than Australia, won the same number of games, lost two more and drew one more.

No other team apart from England and Australia won ten Tests or more in this cycle.

Final: Australia v England

2001-2003

First series: Pakistan's tour of England, 2001
Last series: New Zealand's tour of Sri Lanka, 2003

Team Mat Won Lost Draw Points PCT
Australia 26 19 4 3 240 76.92
South Africa 16 10 5 1 124 64.58
Sri Lanka 17 9 5 3 120 58.82
New Zealand 15 6 2 7 100 55.56
Pakistan 14 7 7 0 84 50.00
India 22 6 8 8 104 39.39
England 25 7 12 6 108 36.00
West Indies 21 5 12 4 76 30.16
Bangladesh 14 0 14 0 0 0.00

Australia and South Africa would have finished as the top two sides in the first hypothetical World Test Championship cycle played entirely in the 21st century, starting from May 2001. Australia won 19 Tests in this period, nearly double of South Africa. Percentage wise, Australia would have finished much higher as well, with a 12 point lead over the second-placed South Africa.

This was an especially tough period for England, who would have finished seventh out of nine sides, winning only seven Tests out of 25.

Final: Australia v South Africa

Most frequent finalists across all WTC cycles

Apart from the hypothetical tables calculated here, the three World Test Championship cycles that have actually been played have seen India play the final twice, Australia twice (including the next one), New Zealand once, and South Africa once (including the next one). Combining the three real and nine hypothetical cycles, here are the most frequent finalists of the World Test Championship in the 21st century.

Australia - 7
South Africa - 5
India - 5
New Zealand - 3
England - 2
Sri Lanka - 2
Pakistan - 0
Bangladesh - 0
West Indies - 0

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