Rain denied South Africa a chance to pick up 12 points in the Port of Spain Test match against the West Indies. It also dented their chances of qualifying for the WTC 2023-25 final.
South Africa had clean-swept their previous series in the West Indies 2-0. They would have eyed all 24 points from the two matches in 2024 to bolster their chances of a berth in the final of the 2023-25 WTC, but intermittent rain allowed only 294.5 overs (just more than three days) in the first Test. South Africa had to settle for a draw and, thus, four points.
How much difference would the eight points make? South Africa remained at seventh place, but their PCT increased marginally, from 25 to 26.67. The West Indies, too, moved from 19.05 to 20.83, but stayed at the bottom of the table.
However, all that is for now. If one looks at the bigger picture, South Africa are scheduled to play 12 Test matches in this cycle. They lost eight points – in other words, a PCT of 5.56 (100x8)/(12x12). This is where the nine teams stand after the draw at Port of Spain.
Can South Africa still qualify? Let us check.
Tests featuring South Africa
South Africa were the best of the two sides at Port of Spain, and will be favourites to win at Providence. If they clean-sweep Pakistan and Sri Lanka at home (they had done that the last time) and draw 1-1 in Bangladesh (mimicking England, Australia, and New Zealand’s results in their last tours), South Africa will reach 61.11, slightly behind Australia’s 62.5 at this point.
If South Africa win 1-0 in Bangladesh, they will finish with 63.89. If they win 2-0, they will jump to 69.44.
Tests featuring Australia and/or India
India will play three Tests against New Zealand, two against Bangladesh – both at home – and five in Australia. Given India’s home record over more than a decade, winning all five Tests is not an outlandish prediction. That will take them to 79.76.
Australia, on the other hand, host India, against whom they have lost their last two home series, and play two Tests in Sri Lanka, where they drew 1-1 in 2022 and lost 0-3 in 2017. Let us assume they turn things around completely to win 2-0 in Sri Lanka this time. That will take them to 67.86. If they win 1-0, they will reach 63.10. What will work to their advantage is the fact that it will be the last series of this cycle, so Australia will know exactly what to expect.
We now have to incorporate the outcome of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy into the calculations. For South Africa to qualify, India have to keep Australia to 24 points from the series to – in other words, win 3-2 or draw 1-1 at worst. If that happens, Australia will finish on 60.53, below South Africa’s 61.11.
Alternately, Australia can keep India to four points (win 4-0 or 5-0), which will restrict India to 60.53.
Of course, the requirements will change based on how South Africa fare in their other series, India do in their five home Tests, or Australia perform in Sri Lanka.
Other Tests
The most England can get is 62.50, above the 61.11 we have chalked out for South Africa. If New Zealand win 2-0 in Sri Lanka and beat England 3-0 at home, a 1-2 defeat in India will take them to 64.29.
Since South Africa play the other teams (and we have already assumed their results), the other teams will finish below these five.
All the above calculations assume that no team will lose further points for over rates.
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