Despite being seventh on the points table, South Africa can comfortably make it to the World Test Championship 2023-25 final.
They may be seventh on the 2023-25 World Test Championship points table, but South Africa’s situation is not as hopeless at is seems.
True, they are where they are because they chose to send a second-string side to New Zealand (and subsequently lose a series against them for the first time). At the same time, they have played only four of their 12 Test matches, and have managed to take 12 points from their two Test matches against India, their most difficult opposition of this cycle. It is now their time to rise through the ranks.
Tests featuring South Africa
To qualify for the final, South Africa need to displace at least one of India and Australia from the top two. Of these, Australia are the easier option for two reasons. First, India are above Australia. And secondly, India and Australia will clash later in this cycle, and Australia have lost each of the last four series between the nations.
South Africa have four series left in this cycle, all of them of two Test matches each. They had clean-swept their last home series against Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and it will not be outlandish to expect them to do that again.
They are also touring the West Indies, where they won the last two two-Test series by 2-0 margins. The difficult tour will be of Bangladesh, a country South Africa have not played Test cricket in since 2015. Australia, England, and New Zealand have all drawn their respective last series in Bangladesh 1-1: let us give South Africa the same margin.
If the above pans out, South Africa will win seven of their remaining eight Test matches and lose the other one. That will take South Africa to 66.67 – above where Australia currently are.
But then, Australia will play as well...
Tests featuring Australia and/or India
India have three Test series left – three Tests against New Zealand and two against Bangladesh – all at home – and five Tests in Australia. Let us assume India will win all five home Tests.
Apart from the India series, Australia also play two Tests in Sri Lanka. In their last two series in the nation, Australia drew 1-1 in 2022 and lost 0-3 in 2011. They are not likely to win 2-0 there, but let us assume they can – just to make things as difficult as possible for South Africa.
If all this happens, India will stand on 79.76 and Australia on 67.86 – just ahead of South Africa’s 66.67 (assuming they have the 7-1 margin as per the calculations) – but we still have to consider the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.
If Australia win that series 3-2, they drop to 65.79 and India to 69.30. However, if Australia win by a 4-1 margin, they will rise to 71.05 ... but India go down to 64.04. For 3-1, Australia will be on 67.54 and India on 65.79. For 2-1, India on 67.54 and Australia 64.04.
In each of these cases, South Africa will finish at second place with 66.67 points.
One must remember that as per the initial assumption, we have predicted a 1-1 draw their series against Bangladesh. If South Africa win that 2-0, they will reach 75.00. Australia will need to win all seven of their Tests to surpass that, while India will need to win six and draw one of their ten Tests.
Other Tests
The most England can get from here is 62.50. New Zealand need to win two Tests in India (and everything else) to go past 66.67. Since South Africa play the other teams (and we have already assumed their results), the other teams will finish below them.
Of course, all this is under the assumption that no team loses further points for over rates.
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