South Africa Test coach Shukri Conrad was optimistic about South Africa’s qualification for the World Test Championship 2023-25 final following their series-win over the West Indies. How realistic are his expectations?
Rain denied the Proteas a win in the first Test of the two-match series at Port of Spain, but South Africa returned to winning ways in Providence with a 40-run triumph.
“We’ve got a big couple of months ahead of us to grow as a Test team. At the end of that, if we do very well and we win enough games, we can end up in the World Test Championship final,” said Conrad after the that win.
South Africa had an easy schedule for this cycle of the World Test Championship. Their three home series were against India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The first of those two teams have never won a Test series in South Africa. Sri Lanka have, but they (like Pakistan) were clean-swept on their last tour in the country.
Their three overseas tours were expected to be in the West Indies (who have not beaten South Africa in more than a decade and a half); New Zealand (who had never won a series against them); and Bangladesh (perhaps their steepest overseas assignment, given Australia, England, and New Zealand have all returned without winning their last series there).
Despite going 1-0 up, South Africa had to settle for a draw against India. A clash with SA20 forced them to send a second-string side to New Zealand and concede the series 0-2. And rain deprived them of eight points at Port of Spain.
Thus, instead of being on 60 points after six Tests (let us assume they would have lost one game along the way), they are on 28. The PCT that could have been 83.33 (66.67 for four wins and 48 points) is now 38.89.
Tests featuring South Africa
As mentioned above, South Africa have six Tests left. If they win five and lose one, they will reach 61.11 (just behind where Australia are now). If they win five and draw one, they will go to 63.89 (between India and Australia’s current positions). If they win all six, they will make it to 69.44 and top the table.
Tests featuring Australia and/or India
India will play five Tests at home – three against New Zealand, two against Bangladesh – and five in Australia. Given India’s home record over more than a decade, winning all five Tests is not an outlandish prediction. That will take them to 79.76.
What about Australia? Apart from hosting India (against whom they have lost their last two home series), they play two Tests in Sri Lanka, where they drew 1-1 in 2022 and lost 0-3 in 2017. To make South Africa’s task difficult, let us give them a 2-0 win. That will take them to 67.86 (1-0 will make it 63.10).
Let us now turn to the Border-Gavaskar Trophy with South Africa’s 61.11 in mind. For South Africa to qualify, either Australia need to finish the series with 24 or fewer points or India with four or fewer.
What about the other teams?
England can reach 62.50, above South Africa’s 61.11 but below 63.89. New Zealand are placed better (they can zoom to 78.57 if they win everything), but five of their eight Tests are in India and Sri Lanka and the other three against England at home. None of these are going to be easy.
Note: All the above calculations assume that no team will lose further points for over rates.
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