England vice-captain Ollie Pope recently claimed that his team might score 600 runs in a day of Test cricket, but is it possible for England, or any team, to do that?
"There might be a day where we go and get 500 or 600 at some point in the future ... That’s a cool thing to have.”
Had Ollie Pope said these words before the turn of the millennium, they would have sounded absurd, even blasphemous. However, the bold early hitting in the ODIs in the 1990s reflected in the scoring rate in Test cricket in the 21st century. The run rate that had remained roughly around the 2.86-mark in the 1980s as well as in the 1990s shot up to 3.20 in the 2000s.
For England, the rise was the same as the rest of the world (2.80 in the 1980s, 2.77 in the 1990s, 3.21 in the 2000s). However, while the global run rate has remained there since then, England’s has shot up to 3.70. In the Bazball era – since the start of the New Zealand series of 2022 – that number reads 4.58.
Scoring at that rate across 90 overs makes it 412 runs a day – way below Pope’s “lower limit” of 500. However, England have already breached the 500-run mark once in this phase, at Rawalpindi in 2022/23. In a day of absurd strokeplay, they amassed 506-4 in 75 overs, breaking a plethora of records en route.
England have attacked 64% of the balls they’ve faced today - this is the highest attacking shot percentage in a Test innings since records begun (2006). The previous record was 54%. For context: since 2015 England have attacked 49% of balls faced in ODIs & 65% in T20s. #PAKvENG
— The CricViz Analyst (@cricvizanalyst) December 1, 2022
The next morning, they reached 600 in 90.2 overs, barely missing Pope’s "upper limit", before folding for 657 in 101 overs – about the same as an exceptionally high-scoring ODI from a couple of decades ago. Their run rate of 6.50 was the fastest for any innings in Test cricket with a 500-run cut-off.
Getting the runs at that pace was important on that flat wicket (Pakistan had lost four wickets in 239 overs at the same venue against Australia earlier that year), where an hour was lost to bad light every day.
But we are digressing. England as good as breached the 600-mark once in 90 overs. Is an encore possible?
Six months later, England were at it again, declaring at 524-4 after 82.4 overs of batting against Ireland at Lord’s. The onslaught was spread across two days of cricket, but England got themselves to a stage where they needed 76 in 44 balls to reach Pope’s target – the equivalent of a decent powerplay and a bit in a T20. The following month, they amassed 592 in 107.4 overs against Australia at Old Trafford.
In all, between June 2022 and July 2023, England amassed more than 300 runs at a rate of 5.37 or more five times.
Are England likely to get 600 in a day?
Before we ask that, it is pertinent to ask another question: are England likely to get 600? Or, more importantly, do they want to get 600 at all?
In all, 93 times have teams won after amassing 600 in Test cricket, while 65 have ended in draws – a ratio of 1.43. Reduce the score to 500, and you get 343 wins and 223 draws (1.58). For 400, the numbers are 825 wins and 466 draws (1.77).
In other words, if a team crosses a threshold, the more they score, the higher the probability of a draw – but let us leave this diminishing marginal return for another day. For our piece, it is important to realise in the Bazball era, England have tried their best to eliminate the draw. When England bat, they almost always have an eye on the clock and another on the scoring rate.
England have amassed 600 in the Stokes era only once, but partly because they did not try to. England’s run rate of 4.49 under Stokes (he led once in 2020 as well) is the highest by any team under any captain who has led even twice. Australia occupy the next three places – 3.66, 3.52, and 3.52 – under Steve Waugh, Pat Cummins, and Ricky Ponting. The difference has been staggering. There is little doubt that England are likelier than any other side in history to breach the 600-run barrier in a 90-over day.
Earlier this year, Hyderabad bowled out Arunachal Pradesh for 172 and piled 529-1 on day one. In the manic last day’s cricket in 2016/17, Panadura went from 180 to 423, bowled out Kalutara for 197, and chased 167 to win. And on the second day in 2006/07, Northerns went from 11-1 to 478-9 before declaring the innings, while Griqualand made 155-2.
These are the only instances of 600 being scored in a single day’s cricket in first-class cricket in the 21st century. In none of these instances did one side bat the entire day. It is, thus, unreliable.
Whom are England playing next?
England have three more Tests this summer. Test matches in England are seldom dominated by spin, and it is safe to assume that a day’s cricket is unlikely to feature more than 90 overs. They next head to Pakistan, of the shorter daylight hours. Backing England to do an encore of 2022 is not outlandish, but the unit of Pope’s prediction was day, not overs, which makes it tricky.
England next travel to New Zealand, where, like England, spinners are not expected to dominate. Since their chance of qualifying for the WTC final is bleak, they next host Zimbabwe. If England set their eyes on 600 in a day, the Zimbabwe Test match is their best shot in near future.
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