Despite two consecutive wins against the West Indies, England’s are unlikely to qualify for the 2023-25 World Test Championship final. Unless they change their schedule drastically, they may not make it in future, either.
The Lord’s victory did not help England escape the bottom position of the 2023-25 World Test Championship points table, but the win at Trent Bridge did. Since the West Indies also slipped down the ranks, England leapfrogged them – as well as Bangladesh and South Africa – to climb to sixth place. Fifth-placed Pakistan do not seem too distant, but India and Australia indeed seem far away.
Of course, this was inevitable. England were at last place after two series and a bit, but that was largely because their cycle began with their two toughest series, against Australia and India.
The home summer against the West Indies and Sri Lanka should not pose much threat. Their remaining series are in Pakistan, where they had won 3-0 in 2022/23, and in New Zealand, where they should have won the series had they not enforced the follow on at Wellington lt time around.
While not impossible, winning 12 consecutive Test matches seems very difficult – England have never won more than eight in a row – and even then they would have to depend on other matches to go past at least one of India and Australia.
What has hurt England? There is little doubt that rain denied them a win at Old Trafford, but that would have got them another eight points. They would have reached 53 points after 12 games – a PCT of 36.81, almost matching Pakistan’s tally.
Of course, that pesky over rate needs to be addressed, but even that will not be enough. In reality, England’s 2023-25 WTC campaign was doomed from its onset, as is the 2025-27 edition.
Also read: How England can qualify for the 2025 WTC final
England are not as good as India or Australia
Under Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum, England enjoyed a successful run in the second half of 2022. Not only did they score runs at astonishing pace but they also followed a streak of non-wins into wins with a phase where they won nine Test matches out of ten including a historic 3-0 sweep in Pakistan.
The form tailed off in 2023 and 2023/24, but that was largely because England played long series against Australia and India, the two best sides in the world. Whether both sides are all-time great units is a debate left for another day, but there is little doubt that few teams have come out on top across a ten-match phase against two sides of this quality.
As is evident, the Big 3 have been excellent against the other sides (England have won twice as many as they have lost – enough to put their global balance-sheet in the positive - the others have done even better).
However, while playing each other, there has been a clear hierarchy among the Big 3: both India and Australia have dominated England over a sustained period of time (India have dominated Australia as well). England have drawn each of their last three home series against these sides 2-2, while England’s away record over the same period reads 1-3 and 1-4 in India, and 0-4 in Australia.
So what if England are not as good as India or Australia?
Yes, so what? New Zealand weren't as good as them either, but they pipped Australia to qualify for the final of the 2019-21 World Test Championship and beat India to become the inaugural champions.
Of course, New Zealand did beat India 2-0 at home, and Australia conceded four penalty points (which were enough for New Zealand). However, there was something else as well.
New Zealand played six series in the WTC 2019-21 cycle – they used series as the 60-point unit back then, not Test matches as 12-point units – including one against each of Australia and India.
In other words, the teams had 240 points to overcome the 120 keenly contested. Teams played twice as many matches against the non-Big 3 sides as they did against the Big 3.
Since the start of 2010, England have the second-worst record against the last wicket, conceding an average tenth-wicket partnership of 15.86. They have conceded 17 stands of fifty or more for the last wicket, seven more than all teams.
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) July 21, 2024
READ: https://t.co/CltTHvtQaO | #ENGvWI pic.twitter.com/GhtzolcmGt
The points system changed in the 2021-23 cycle – and not in England’s favour. Since points were now awarded per match, the best way for teams to finish above teams better than themselves was to play more matches against the other (non-Big 3) teams. England did that, but the ratio was 1.2.
They played 22 Test matches, of which five were against each of Australia and India – a whopping 22.4 percent. The 12 other Tests were not enough for them to offset the damage caused by the 10 Tests against the Big 3 teams, and they finished fourth.
In 2023-25, England’s cycle is going to be the same – 10 Tests against Australia and India, and 12 against the others (a ratio of 1.2). In 2025-27, the counts will read 10 and 11 (1.1). These are unlikely to be enough for them to turn things around, especially with South Africa, a constant threat to every side, being one of their opponents in 2025-27.
A significantly improved England side will obviously get more points against at least one of Australia and India. That will happen at some point – the order between the best sides keeps changing over sustained periods of time – but the change is unlikely to be immediate.
One way to overcome the deficit is to play more against the other teams, but the ECB are neither keen on reducing the number of matches against Australia or India nor increasing the length against others.
For England, it may come down to a contest between revenue from Test matches and a place in the WTC final.
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