Sixteen matches into the 2024 season, the Royal Challengers Bengaluru have two points to show after four games. Optimistic fans will highlight that the sixth- and seventh-placed sides have two points each as well, but RCB have played a match more than them, as have ninth-placed Delhi Capitals.

All of them are ahead of only the winless Mumbai Indians – who are winless after three matches and have non-cricketing problems of their own.

Memes and jokes notwithstanding, RCB have moved past their nightmarish phase between 2017 and 2019, when they finished last twice and sixth on the other occastion. They made it to the top four in each of the next three seasons, while they were playoffs aspirants until their last match in 2023.

What can RCB do to stay on track of the IPL 2024 playoffs race? To begin with, they have been scoring too slowly by the standards of this season. Their run rate of 8.68 (173 in 20 overs) would have been acceptable in another season, but the 2024 season has set a new high in IPL scoring rates. Not only has the season run rate breached the nine-mark for the first time, it has hit an astonishing 9.35.

Where are they falling behind? Certainly not in the death overs – the last four of the innings – where they have scored at 11.73. While not in the same league as the Kolkata Knight Riders’ 16.30, they are still sixth in that aspect, and have scored quicker in the end than Gujarat Titans (7.88) and Lucknow Super Giants (9.16).

Being the last phase, death overs often leave a stronger impact on the memory and are often perceived as decisive, but in reality, they make up for only a fifth of a team innings. It is in the first 16 overs where the RCB has fallen behind this season: with 7.96, they are the only team with a run rate below 8.14 over the first eighty percent of the innings in IPL 2024.

To drill it down further, RCB have scored at a mere 8.37 in the powerplay overs, third from the bottom. But even that seems acceptable when pitted against their run rate of 7.72 – the only team under 8.23 – in the middle overs, the often-overlooked half-innings period.

To sum it up, the RCB top order has scored at a rate too slow for their “finishers” like Mahipal Lomror and Dinesh Karthik to make a difference later in the innings.

RCB have traditionally been a top-heavy batting unit that relies largely on their top order. The ubiquitous Virat Kohli has typically batted alongside two overseas stars – in this squad, Faf du Plessis and Glenn Maxwell, along with a third top-order power hitter in Cameron Green.

Unfortunately, neither du Plessis nor Maxwell has lasted long enough to make an impact this season. Du Plessis got off to brisk starts against both Chennai Super Kings and Lucknow, as did Maxwell against Kolkata, but their stays were cut short. RCB have used Green as a floater, sending him at three when du Plessis fell early but at five otherwise: he, too, has been restricted to one cameo, against Kolkata.

Between them, the three expensive investments that take up three of the four overseas slots have lasted only 133 balls across 12 innings and have scored at a strike rate 120. With Rajat Patidar and Anuj Rawat also failing three times out of four, Kohli was left to choose between anchoring the innings and taking the attack on despite the fall of wickets. He went for the more conventional of the two approaches.

What can change from here? To boost their batting, they can always draft Will Jacks into the XI. However, three overseas cricketers in the top five leaves little room for manoeuvre, and one of them can make way for Will Jacks. His strike rate of 159, while impressive, does not tell the full story. In T20 history, he has the best powerplay strike (164) among all batters to have faced 1,000 balls; and only ten batters have faced more balls in the middle overs than Jacks while scoring at a rate quicker than his 146. In other words, he is the most obvious solution to RCB’s weaknesses this season.

But whom will he replace? Du Plessis, the captain of the side? Green, the best all-rounder on paper? Or Maxwell, their best bowler of he season with figures of 8-0-59-4? Of the three, Green is the likeliest to take the fall if Jacks plays for Patidar and bats in the top three, but RCB will still need an all-rounder. The best bet in the Indian contingent is Manoj Bhandage of Karnataka, who strikes at 142 in T20 cricket and bowls at a brisk pace but is yet to play in the IPL.

Can the Royal Challengers play all four and field an all-Indian bowling attack? Bowling has seldom been their strong suit. Their spin attack – Karn Sharma and Mayank Dagar – is the weakest of all ten teams, and would have looked even weaker without Maxwell’s contributions. Mohammed Siraj has had an ordinary season, as have Green, Alzarri Joseph, and Joseph’s replacement Reece Topley.

Bengaluru can keep rotating between Joseph, Topley, Tom Curran, and Lockie Ferguson if they have to pick an overseas bowler, but do they have to do that? They can pick two or even all three of Yash Dayal (who has impressed this season), Vijaykumar Vyshak (bowled well in his only match), and Akash Deep (yet to play) to support Siraj and Dagar. They already have Green, Jacks, Maxwell, and Lomror to chip in with the ball.

Whether RCB leave out Green or field an all-Indian bowling attack remains to be seen, but delaying Jacks’ IPL debut any further may be leaving things for too late.

All numbers until Match 16, Delhi Capitals v Kolkata Knight Riders at Visakhapatnam