India fans, keep your hopes low for the T20 World Cup

Let us not debate the merits, or lack thereof, of India’s decision to include Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli in the squad, and subsequently the starting XI, at the T20 World Cup. Let us begin this discussion with the assumption that both are sure starters – Rohit the powerplay basher at the top, Kohli the anchor at one-down.

Since Suryakumar Yadav will bat at four, there will be room for three others in the top six.

Let us begin with Rohit’s opening partner. After a record-breaking IPL season in 2023, India picked Yashasvi Jaiswal as a T20I opener and backed him. His stake as Rohit’s T20I opening partner was consolidated by his amazing run in the Test series against England, albeit in a different format. Then came IPL 2024.

From six innings this season till date, Jaiswal has 102 runs without reaching 40. Given his high-risk approach, these streaks of small scores are inevitable. While there is little reason to question his place or role based on these numbers yet, it should be noted that he has struck at only 138 and has hit a solitary six from 74 balls, so he has not quite been coming at the bowlers all guns blazing.

Of course, there is still time. In this fickle format, all it takes to return to runs is a couple of matches. And anyway, the second opener has not been India’s biggest question, for Shubman Gill has been waiting in the wings. Abhishek Sharma – he bowls as well – has made a strong case, but India have a reputation for being conservative at global events: no Indian man has debuted at the T20 World Cup since 2014 (or in its ODI counterpart since 1992).

If the openers, Kohli, and “SKY” bat in the top four, Nos. 5 and 6 need to be filled by the sixth bowler and the keeper, as none of the other batters can perform either role. It is important to note that this automatically rules Rinku Singh out of the first XI. It also rules out Tilak Varma, whose bowling is little more than a token. For India, he has bowled five overs in 16 matches; in the IPL, three in 30; in 2024, none in six for any team.

For years, India have groomed Hardik Pandya as their main pace-bowling all-rounder. At the 2024 IPL, however, he has figures of 8-0-89-1 from five games. Even if one attributes his figures to the dimensions of the Wankhede Stadium, they do not justify India’s foremost fast-bowling all-rounder bowling fewer than two overs a game.

Pandya has struck at 154 this season. Even if he had not, even if he was not the captain, he would have been a certainty for Mumbai Indians despite bowling sporadically, for they have all-rounders in their XI. That is not something the Indian T20I team boasts of: Pandya’s bowling is paramount to their team balance.

There have been questions over Pandya’s place in the T20I side if he does not bowl. What makes it worse is that Chennai Super Kings have used the Impact Player to ensure Shivam Dube, the closest India has to a back-up for Pandya, has not been part of their fielding unit. If not bowling has been a problem with Pandya, it has been worse for Dube: he has not even fielded.

Nitish Kumar Reddy might have slammed a 37-ball 64 from No.4 against Punjab Kings and taken Jitesh Sharma in three overs of seam bowling, but it was the first fifty and first wicket of his nine-match T20 career. He is unlikely to leapfrog Pandya and Dube and make a direct entry in the World Cup starting XI. Besides, as we discussed, India are conservative.

The seam-bowling all-rounder’s role, thus, is likely to be filled by a cricketer who may end up bowling very little at the IPL.

Jitesh also brings us to the topic of the wicketkeeper. He had been India’s de facto gloveman in the format until now, for he can hit down the order. He does not have an IPL fifty – not an uncommon feature for a “finisher” – but he struck at 163 in the league in 2022 and at 150 in 2023. In 2024, however, that number has taken a Jaiswal-esque plunge to 131. There is still time, but the competition is stiff.

Rishabh Pant has looked in excellent touch since his comeback. His strike rate in IPL 2024 (158) is higher than his already impressive IPL career strike rate of 149, but there is a catch. Of the 103 times he has batted in the league, Pant has come out in the top four on 72 occasions. For India, that number reads 38 in 56. That is his comfort zone, but at the World Cup, he is certain to bat outside the top four.

Similarly, KL Rahul – assuming he is contention – has, barring injuries, never batted outside the opening slots in any T20 since 2019. Sanju Samson has batted 143 times in the top four in 154 IPL innings, and 16 times out of 22 in T20Is. Ishan Kishan’s (assuming he is back in favour again) corresponding numbers read 80 out of 90 times in the IPL and 31 out of 32 in T20Is. Dhruv Jurel is yet to play limited-overs cricket for India.

That leaves Dinesh Karthik, who has struck at 191 in IPL 2024 but will turn 39 just before the World Cup. The many DK-and-World-Cup-year memes notwithstanding, he is unlikely to return to the XI at that age.

Do India know who their spin-bowling all-rounder is? Axar Patel seemed to hold the edge, but he has struck at 121 at the IPL, a number not befitting of someone who would invariably come to bat at the death. Ravindra Jadeja has done better (140), but has played only two T20Is since August 2022. Neither Shahbaz Ahmed nor Washington Sundar has impressed for the Sunrisers Hyderabad.

Let us, for now, assume India will go in with one of Jadeja and Axar. Of the other four bowlers, Jasprit Bumrah is a certainty; of the other fast bowlers, Arshdeep Singh is the closest to have sealed a spot. The third seamer remains an unresolved problem.

For the specialist spinner, India can choose one (or, depending on the conditions, two) of Kuldeep Yadav, Ravi Bishnoi, and Yuzvendra Chahal. Irrespective of the combination, it will be a quartet of non-hitters, resulting in a tail that will begin at eight.

Let us sum up the scenarios.

India will be going with an opener who has not got runs of late; two others in the top three who have played only against Afghanistan since the 2022 T20 World Cup; one pace-bowling all-rounder who has not bowled much of late; a wicketkeeper who is likely to bat out of position; and a very, very long tail.

All numbers updated until Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants, April 13, 2024