Sri Lanka v India: Who will win?

A 3-0 scoreline in the T20I series didn’t exactly flatter India, who were good value for the victories and showed why they are world champions, but there were positives to take for Sri Lanka. In the first game they powered to 149-2 in the chase before a collapse, while in the decider only a frankly incomprehensible choke against two spinners who had never bowled before in T20Is stopped them from claiming a consolation win.

However, it might be asking too much to expect Sri Lanka to build on that. While they aren’t ODI world champions, it’s in that format that India can truly flex their muscles, and they have picked a strong squad. Hardik Pandya and Jasprit Bumrah are notable absentees, but that pair aside, it’s stacked with star power.

Sri Lanka, meanwhile, finished joint bottom of that tournament and are without several first-choice players: the likes of Matheesha Pathirana, Dilshan Madushanka, Dushmantha Chameera and Nuwan Thushara. While India could experiment when the series is sewn up, they will want to start strong.

Still, while Sri Lanka are rank outsiders, priced as they are at 4.15 for the first ODI with Stake, it’s hard not to be tempted by that T20I performance. All it takes is one day out with bat or ball…

Who will be the team with the best batter?

While it might be hard to see past an India win, it is easier to envisage a Sri Lankan topping the run-scoring charts in the first ODI. In the T20I series, the top three spots in the overall run-charts were occupied by Sri Lankans. While Kusal Perera, in second, won’t feature in the ODIs, Pathum Nissanka in first and Kusal Mendis in third will make up two of Sri Lanka’s top three.

Nissanka, in particular, is consistent in ODIs and knows how to go big as well. He averages a tick under 45 and has made a double-century in the format. It feels plausible that one Sri Lanka batter goes big in a slow enough fashion that it doesn’t threaten the result in the game, but still makes the price of 3.00 for Sri Lanka to have the top batter with Stake attractive.

Who will be the team with the best bowler?

On the other hand, it’s hard, with Sri Lanka’s absences, to see any bowler taking enough wickets to finish as top bowler. Wickets are the currency here, but they are missing their key death bowlers who could cash in at the back end. India, at 1.37 with Stake, aren’t that attractively priced here. But with Mohammad Siraj in their ranks, who has 19 wickets at 7.68 against Sri Lanka since the start of last year, it still feels like the way to go.

Who will have the highest opening stand?

With Stake, the best price on an Indian bet is for them to have the highest opening stand, at 1.60. Sri Lanka are at 2.15. While it’s understandable for these to be close together - it only takes one good ball or one rash shot for the openers to be separated early - it’s still tempting to back Sri Lanka here. Rohit Sharma has taken on a new, more attacking avatar, and Shubman Gill is occupying, for him, a relative run drought, without an ODI hundred since the start of the World Cup. If Sri Lanka can find a way past Siraj, there’s at least no Bumrah or Mohammed Shami to contend with, and as mentioned before, Nissanka could be an opener to keep an eye on.

Any other odds?

Rajabet are offering 50.00 on both Gill and Mendis to score a century. The former hasn’t tonned up in a little while, but also hasn’t looked bereft of form. Perhaps he’s due a big one? Mendis, meanwhile has surged back into form through the Lanka Premier League playoffs, and maintained his run with a strong showing in the T20Is.