The defeat against Sri Lanka at The Oval dented England’s cause to reach the World Test Championship final next year, but they can still qualify.
The defeat at The Oval pushed England’s PCT down to 42.19, meaning they have slid to sixth place. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, have reached 42.86 – marginally ahead of England – and jumped two places to reach fifth spot. This is how the WTC 2023-25 points table stands at this point.
Can England make it? They have six Tests left – three each in Pakistan and New Zealand. For them to qualify, it is important they win all six Tests. Anything less would (obviously) harm their cause.
What if they win all six? That will take their PCT to 57.95 and them to third place. Previously, this might have been enough, although the 2019-21 scoring system was significantly different. But in 2021-23, India qualified with 58.8 points. They would have made it with 57.95 as well (third-placed Sri Lanka had 55.6).
For England to qualify, they need to displace at least one of Australia and India in the top two. Australia, whose PCT is about six below India’s, are easier to overhaul, but England can go past India as well.
The method
Let us refer to the team England have to displace as X. England’s chances will be enhanced if X lose as many matches as possible, and the other team to win as many as possible. Of course, England have to eye wins in all six Tests and make it to the 57.95-mark.
As for the series not involving any of the three teams, England have to back the team placed lower on the points table before the respective series to sweep the series. This will ensure no team gets away from the bottom six.
For England to displace Australia
By our method, India will have to sweep their series against Bangladesh and New Zealand; Sri Lanka against New Zealand; Bangladesh against South Africa; South Africa against Sri Lanka; Pakistan against South Africa and the West Indies; and Sri Lanka against Australia.
If all that happens (and England win all six), Australia will be left on 53.57 (and Sri Lanka on 53.85) – but that is without the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. There, even a 3-2 win will take Australia to 55.26, behind England’s 57.95.
For England to displace India
This time, both Bangladesh and New Zealand have to sweep their series against India; Sri Lanka against New Zealand; South Africa and the West Indies against Bangladesh; South Africa against Sri Lanka, Pakistan against South Africa; the West Indies against Pakistan; and Australia against Sri Lanka.
Assuming England win all six, they will be on 57.95 – ahead of South Africa’s 52.78 and India’s 44.05. A 4-1 win will take India to only 53.51 in that case (and Australia, with 55.26), will finish below England.
As is evident, in both cases there is some leeway for England, so all hope is not lost, although England's chance of qualifying may be unlikely.
The above calculations assume that no points are lost due to over rates for The Oval Test or any subsequent Test.
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