A glance at Sri Lanka’s schedule in the ongoing World Test Championship is enough to suggest where things stand with the side currently. The Asian team, like all other teams, is playing six series in the WTC, five of which comprise two matches each.

Among other factors, Sri Lanka’s declining competitiveness over the last few years and the growing interest around the Big Three sides have forced their Test tours to be reduced to two games apiece. The series against England is the only instance of them playing three Tests in this cycle - do well and they can hope for more games moving forward; surrender easily and they risk seeing their Test fortunes stagnate further.

Sri Lanka are currently fourth in the World Test Championship table, behind only India, Australia and New Zealand. England, on the other hand, are placed at No.7, with a PCT (points percentage) of 36.54. The standings, however, do not mirror either side’s calibre fully.

England have played 13 Tests, the most by any team in this cycle of the WTC, which has exposed them the most to slow over-rate deductions. Sri Lanka, on the other hand, have played just four games, with Tests against Ireland and Afghanistan not being considered in the championship. While they lost the home series against Pakistan last year, they recently whitewashed Bangladesh away from home, giving them a win percentage of 50.

England have named their playing XI for the first Test against Sri Lanka beginning on Wednesday.

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— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) August 19, 2024

It has been a trend for the last few years, with Sri Lanka’s last series win over a side currently higher than them in the ICC men’s Test rankings (the top six), either at home or away, coming way back in 2019 when they became the first Asian team to clinch a Test series in South Africa.

Since then, Sri Lanka have won only three Tests against the top six sides in the world, all of which have come at home. Despite those results, this is a side with abundant potential and England, who last lost a Test against the opposition in 2014, should be wary even as the tourists went down meekly to a make-shift Lions side in a warm-up game a few days back.

Experienced batting lineup

The top six features Nishan Madhushka and Dimuth Karunaratne as the openers, followed by Kusal Mendis, Angelo Mathews, Dinesh Chandimal and skipper Dhananjaya de Silva. The batting line-up is vastly experienced and, barring Mendis, each player averages more than 40 in Test cricket. Karunaratne, Mendis and de Silva were a part of the XI when Sri Lanka beat the Proteas six years ago and know what it takes to overcome teams in tough conditions, while Chandimal and Mathews have been around for 13 and 15 years respectively.

The presence of more senior players has led to even spreading of workload in the batting department recently. Gone are the days of Sri Lanka solely depending on Mathews, who was the lone spearhead for several years after the departure of Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene.

Since the start of 2023, three other batters have made at least 500 runs and average over 50 - Karunaratne, de Silva, Mendis - taking away some pressure from Mathews' shoulders. There have been 37 fifty-plus scores in nine Tests from eight players in this period, including 16 centuries, the most by any team. For reference, England have played 16 Tests since the start of last year and have 13 centurions. Even Australia (13 hundreds from 18 Tests) and India (14 hundreds from 14 Tests) haven't matched them.

A total of six players have made more than 500 runs in this period for Sri Lanka, with Mendis making 367 runs in four innings at an average of 122.33. Overall, the top six averages 47.75 since January 2023, the most among all teams in the world, with England in the second spot at 41.56.

The fast bowling resurgence

Between January 2021 and December 2022, the Sri Lanka bowlers averaged 32.90 in 17 matches, only higher than Pakistan, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe. They had a strike rate of 64.5 and leaked runs at 3.05 an over, indicating how the bowlers lacked sting. The spinners, traditionally Sri Lanka’s strength, averaged 33.03, which has only increased to 36.57 in the last 20 months.

But even as the slower bowlers have struggled, the Sri Lankan pacers have made rapid improvements. The quicks have picked up 77 wickets since January 2023 at an average of 29.88 and a strike rate of 49.9. The turnaround of Vishwa Fernando, who averages 17.78 this year, has been massive, while Asitha Fernando and Lahiru Kumara have also been impressive in 2024.

Prabath Jayasuriya, Sri Lanka’s left-arm spinner, had a phenomenal start to his Test career, scalping 29 wickets in his first six innings in 2022 but his performances have dipped thereafter. He has claimed 42 wickets since the start of 2023 but has bowled as many as 429.3 overs. Similarly, Ramesh Mendis has struggled as well but the seamers have taken on the responsibility instead.

Will it be enough to trouble England?

Probably not but Sri Lanka will be high on confidence after their recent ODI series win against India. England, despite the absence of Ben Stokes and Zak Crawley and the recent retirement of James Anderson, have, on paper, a superior all-round team that has excelled in home conditions of late. Sri Lanka, on the other hand, despite flashes of individual brilliance, have not been able to attain the desired level of consistency against the better-ranked teams, especially away from home.

The batters as well have had their struggles in conditions helpful for fast bowling. Karunaratne, widely regarded as Sri Lanka’s best batter in recent times, averages 33.21 in SENA countries (South Africa, England, New Zealand and Australia), while Chandimal’s average falls to 31.48. Mendis’ average reads 32.94 and the only successful batter in the conditions has been Mathews.

With an average of 44.50 and five hundreds in the four countries, Mathews will need to be the anchor and do bulk of the scoring as the others bat around him. He averages 47.88 in England with a stunning 160 at Leeds in 2014 helping his side to a memorable win. The quicks, already in fine form, will get assistance as well. While not the favourites for the series, with a little resistance, some faith and moments of magic, Sri Lanka can spring up a surprise or two.

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