South Africa rode on Marco Jansen’s first-innings burst of 7-13 to thrash Sri Lanka by 233 runs in the first Test of the two-match series, at Durban, to attain a PCT of 59.26. That helped them displace Australia (57.69) at the second place of the WTC 2023-25 league table, behind only India (61.11).

With 50, Sri Lanka are at fifth place, between New Zealand (54.55) and England (40.79), who are now playing a Test match at Christchurch. However, all is not over for them.

Sri Lanka’s upcoming Test matches

One in South Africa, from December 5, 2024
Two against Australia at home, across January and February, 2025 – the last series of the league stage

How can Sri Lanka still qualify?

An upside of Sri Lanka’s remaining fixtures is whom they are playing. Every win will not only boost their own cause but also hamper that of South Africa and Australia, two of their rivals for a final spot.

Three wins in three Tests will take Sri Lanka to 61.54. That will also lead to South Africa dropping to 53.33 and Australia to 50. However, they have other Test matches in hand.

If they sweep Pakistan 2-0, South Africa will finish on 61.11 – behind 61.54. In other words, three wins will keep Sri Lanka clear of South Africa... and – this is important – at least one of Australia and India.

To demonstrate the latter point, let us consider the most extreme cases. If Australia beat India 4-1 (India already have a 1-0 lead), they will finish on 60.53 (we have already assumed they will lose 0-2 in Sri Lanka) – again, behind 61.54.

India, of course, can reach 64.04 with a 4-1 win and go past Sri Lanka (anything less than four wins will result in India finishing below 61.54). However, finishing second is all Sri Lanka need to qualify for the final.

However, there is another player in the game as well: a 3-0 sweep against England (nothing less) will help New Zealand clear 61.54 and finish on 64.29. This seems unlikely, for New Zealand are only four runs ahead with four wickets in hand at Christchurch – and that is only one Test out of three.

If England win at Christchurch, thus, all Sri Lanka need is three wins: that will guarantee them a berth in the final.

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