Following their 152-run defeat against Pakistan, England’s hopes of qualifying for the World Test Championship final are realistically over.
England have played 18 matches in the ongoing WTC cycle, winning nine and losing eight, with one draw. With 19 points deducted due to slow over-rate, they currently have a points percentage (PCT) of 43.06% and are fourth on the table, behind India (74.24%), Australia (62.50%) and Sri Lanka (55.56%).
England, who have played six more Tests (18) than any other team in the 2023-25 World Test Championship, have four more matches left but even if they are able to win all games, they are unlikely to move into the top two.
What happens if England win their remaining matches?
England have four away games left - one against Pakistan in the ongoing series, and three more Tests against New Zealand next month. If England manage to win all four matches and are not deducted any further points, they can manage a maximum PCT of 53.41%, which is still below the third-place Sri Lanka’s current PCT.
The only scenario where they can move to No.3 will be if Sri Lanka drop points. Sri Lanka have four Tests left - two in South Africa and two at home, in Australia. If Sri Lanka lose all four, their PCT will drop to 38.46%. However, even if Sri Lanka manage to win at least two, their PCT will move to 53.85%, which will be more than what England can get if they will all their remaining games. In any case, even if they do finish in third position that's still one position outside of qualification for the final.
Can they move into the top two in any situation?
Improbable. They would have to hope that India win just one of their remaining eight games AND that Sri Lanka win no more than one of their remaining Tests. If Sri Lanka win two matches and the other results stay as is (England winning all, India losing seven), Sri Lanka will move to No.2. If India win two matches and Sri Lanka just win one more, India will be second.
Currently, there is no scenario where England can topple Australia, with Sri Lanka likely to go through if Australia lose the India series and also go down to Sri Lanka.
There is also a possibility that South Africa make it into the top two - they have two series against Sri Lanka and Pakistan left, but for England, they would be hoping on an unrealistic possibility.
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