"I'd rather take an extra two weeks than run the risk of potentially doing something worse and then putting myself out of the game for longer," he said in September.

Still, it will be a close-run thing. He’s training, and there are tests and trials to come to make sure there’s no risk of re-injury. If he is unavailable, England have a few options to rebalance the XI.

The most likely of those is simply to pick Stokes’ closest like-for-like in the squad: Chris Woakes. It was that balance of the side that England favoured when Stokes missed the Sri Lanka series, and if the pitch could be flat, they will want all the bowling they can get. That would likely mean two spinners included, with the smart money being on Somerset pair Shaoib Bashir and Jack Leach to get the nod over Leicestershire leggie Rehan Ahmed. The attack would then be rounded out by two quicks, with Gus Atkinson pencilled in, and the other coming from Matt Potts, Olly Stone and Brydon Carse.

There are other options. England could hand a Test debut to Jordan Cox and back four bowlers, with Joe Root’s off-spin filling in for any extra overs. A complication here is that Bashir, England’s No.1 spinner, is also an offie. If England want to pack their batting, turn the ball both ways and pick three quicks, it will mean leaving out their current project spinner.

If Stokes can play but can’t bowl, there are more complications. If England were to play five bowlers in this case, it would mean leaving out one of their first-choice top seven, and it’s not immediately clear who that would be. Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett are the only two recognised openers, Ollie Pope is the vice-captain and made a century in his last Test, Joe Root is an all-time great, Harry Brook is on his way to the same status, and Jamie Smith is coming off the back of a maiden summer of rave reviews. Pope was under pressure before that hundred at The Oval, but should now have eased any concerns, meaning the easiest thing to do, harsh as it is, might be to leave Smith out, with apologies, and give the No.3 the gloves.

There’s an argument Stokes himself should be the player to sit out, to ensure he’s back bowling-fit for the second Test, and because he’s not clearly head and shoulders above any of England’s other top-seven batters. Set against that is his captaincy, the value of which was thrown into sharp relief by England’s defeat to Sri Lanka at The Oval, and which was never clearer than in the first Test in Pakistan two years ago.

The nature of the pitch should also come into it. For now, the pitch has a tinge of green, and Pakistan captain Shan Masood wants a surface that aids his quicks, and so that’s what England are planning on. But then a few weeks back Pakistan wanted a seam-friendly surface against Bangladesh, got a flat one instead, and paid the price. In Pakistan cricket, what those in charge want changes by the day, and what they get often bears no relation in any case.

Given all that, there’s a case more than ever that England should forgo their habit of naming a team long before the toss. Instead, they are set to name a side on Saturday, October 5, nearly 48 hours out from the first ball being bowled. It at least means we won’t have long to wait to see how they answer their Stokes dilemma.

Follow Wisden for all cricket updates, including live scores, match stats, quizzes and more. Stay up to date with the latest cricket news, player updates, team standings, match highlights, video analysis and live match odds.