The left-arm spinner had just had the best season of his career, averaging 40 with the bat and half that with the ball, leading him to be named the PCA’s Domestic MVP. England had a tour of the subcontinent coming up. And yet Dawson was nowhere to be found. There was bafflement at Dawson’s exclusion from some corners, with the County Championship die-hards taking it as more evidence of the denigration of their beloved competition.

Cut to this season. England have a tour of the subcontinent coming up. Dawson has just had the best season of his career, averaging 60 with the bat - the third best by any batter in Division One (with a 250-run cut-off) - and 25 with the ball. His 54 wickets were two off top spot in either tier, and the most by any spinner in the country. He has been nominated for the PCA’s main award for the second year in succession, and is far improved on the version of himself that won three Test caps in 2016 and 2017. And once again, Dawson is nowhere to be found in England’s squads. But this time, the reaction has been far more muted. Why?

There are some differences between this year and last, but few serve to clear up the situation. Last year, as England toiled to a 4-1 defeat in India, Dawson was in South Africa, winning an SA20 title for Sunrisers Eastern Cape. That commitment, booked in long before England’s squad was picked, and with Dawson earning far more there than he would have in India, partly explained his absence. Especially given the fact that, despite his excellent numbers, England viewed him at best as a backup, because they were selecting on more than numbers. "Liam Dawson is probably not someone who wants to go around India as the 15th or 16th man," Rob Key said at the time. "I don't think it's high on his agenda to be going as, essentially, a replacement bowler. I just feel like the style of bowling that Hartley has actually puts him ahead of [Dawson], to be honest."

This was the ‘Attributes’ squad, Tom Hartley and Shoaib Bashir plucked from relative obscurity because they bowled it from on high, and because England viewed something in each than they liked. To an extent, they were vindicated, even with the scoreline. Hartley claimed a match-winning seven-for on debut, and Bashir has gone on to establish himself as England’s No.1.

This time around, there is less franchise competition. Perhaps a T10 knockabout here or there, but nothing with the financial or competitive heft of the SA20, for which Dawson received a six-figure sum. There is also less of a need to go rogue with their picks. England had tried simply picking the most redoubtable county spinners for two tours in a row, and had been beaten heavily both times. Trying something different made sense, since there is no roadmap to beating this India in India.

For Pakistan, last time, England had a plan, expecting to be confronted by flat pitches, as they got in Rawalpindi. They knew their spinners would need to shoulder a heavy workload, and they knew they wouldn’t get much assistance, and so picked, in Will Jacks, Liam Livingstone and, to a lesser extent, Rehan Ahmed, three tweakers who would lengthen the batting order as much as possible, allowing them to go as hard as they liked. As it happened, the pitches then changed a bit, and England adapted well, with Harry Brook’s transcendent Test start helping too.

This time, there is no clue what they might get, because Pakistan are a shambles. They wanted a seam-friendly surface against Bangladesh, and got a trademark flattie. The next pitch helped the bowlers more, and they lost on that too. Shaheen Shah Afridi gets dropped. Naseem Shah gets rested and then plays domestic cricket. They might ask for any type of surface, depending on the whims of the day, and that might have no relation to the type of pitch they get. Given that, England have looked to cover as many bases as possible, recalling Chris Woakes among a variety of bowling all-rounders and specialist quicks and spinners. It makes Dawson’s omission stand out more. Is there no pitch where England might want Shoaib Bashir, their three best quicks, and another spin all-rounder to balance the XI, for example?

There’s even an argument that he’s a better spinner than the recalled Jack Leach full stop. “I think he’s the best spinner we’ve got,” said Mark Butcher this time last year. “No disrespect to Jack Leach, but I think he’s a better, smarter bowler than Jack.”

So why has Dawson’s snub prompted less furore this time around? Partly because we already had the conversation last year, and certainly the man himself, if he’s not exactly happy, has at least made some sort of peace with the end of his England ambitions. “Being honest, there's a few things that have happened over the last year,” he told ESPNcricinfo at the start of this summer. “For me, probably Test cricket now is completely off the radar. But it is what it is, I'm 34 and I want to enjoy my cricket and try to win trophies towards the end of my career. I think with my age, 34, realistically that's probably gone to be honest. There's been a few things happened over the last few months. Speaking to [England selector] Luke Wright, I know where I stand. I don't expect to play.” Still, Dawson is now of the calibre that England should be twisting his arm, rather than shrugging their shoulders and leaving the question unasked.

There’s also the fact that this is a less high-profile tour, and so the squad invites less scrutiny. Perhaps, given the relative success of Hartley and Bashir, there’s more leeway given to England’s selectors to do what they like. And this time, the spinners they have picked have all played and done well; they haven’t gone with a complete unknown over Dawson, as they did last year. There’s also England’s Ashes focus which has informed several of their decisions this summer. Dawson is unlikely to feature Down Under - but then neither is Leach, with whom Dawson is in closest competition.

But while Pakistan are in crisis, and while victory there isn’t quite the prize a series win in India or Australia would be, England shouldn’t take them lightly. The hosts should have more to offer with the ball than in 2022, with Shaheen and Naseem back fit, and have shown throughout their history that the deepest pit is often just base camp for the sharpest climb. England’s seam stocks are shallower as well, with none of Mark Wood, Ollie Robinson and James Anderson available this time. This winter, an exact repeat of the 2022/23 Test schedule, will offer a chance to see how far England have progressed, following on from a drawn Ashes, a chastening tour of India, and a humbling dead-rubber defeat to Sri Lanka. That 3-0 triumph over Pakistan remains the high water mark of the McCullum era. Fail to win this time, and the feeling that England have stalled somewhat will grow.

The best preparation for winning in a year’s time is winning now, and surely Dawson would help England do so. But like last year, he’s been left behind.

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