Pakistan still have a mathematical chance of making it to the World Test Championship final in 2025. How could this happen?
After a dismal series defeat at home to Bangladesh last month, Pakistan were defeated by England in Multan in the first of the sides' three-match series.
But after a shake-up in the PCB selection committee, the playing XI and the conditions, they hit back at the same venue the following week to level the series.
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Pakistan then secured a win in the third Test in Rawalpindi, winning their first Test series on home turf in nearly four years. They have now moved into seventh place in the World Test Championship standings, and although it sounds hard to believe, they have a chance of qualifying for the final next June.
But how could they pull it off?
How Pakistan can still qualify for the World Test Championship final
It must be said that Pakistan's qualification is not in their hands. They must win all four of their remaining matches – two away from home against South Africa, and two at home against West Indies – while depending on other results to go their way.
India, Australia, Sri Lanka, New Zealand and South Africa are the other teams in the race for a spot in the final, so Pakistan will need to finish above four of these sides to qualify.
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With India currently on top of the table, Pakistan's most realistic route to the final consists of India pulling away at the top, with the other four teams dropping enough matches to fall behind them. Pakistan can of course contribute to this by defeating South Africa 2-0, but they cannot influence the results of the other teams.
Pakistan's points percentage if they win all four remaining matches will be 52.38. New Zealand can overtake this if they win four out of their five matches, and South Africa can overtake this by winning all three of their non-Pakistan matches (assuming they lose the two against Pakistan).
Sri Lanka will dip below 52.38 if they fail to win three or more of their remaining matches. Australia will go below this mark if they fail to win five out of their seven remaining fixtures.
What results do Pakistan need to make the World Test Championship final?
The following series results would see Pakistan qualify for the final (assuming, of course, that they win all four of their games):
- IND 1-2 NZ
- BAN 0-2 SA
- AUS 2-3 IND
- NZ 2-1 ENG
- SA 1-0 SL
- SL 1-0 AUS
New Zealand are currently favourites to win the second Test against India, and it is quite likely that India will be able to grab a consolation win in Mumbai.
South Africa have won the first Test against Bangladesh, and could conceivably win the second as well. If that result goes another way, that would be even more favourable for Pakistan as it would drag South Africa down, and allow Pakistan to qualify even if the Proteas beat Sri Lanka 2-0.
India have won their last two Test series in Australia, and a hard-fought 3-2 win this time around is not out of the question either, with any bigger win for India being favourable to Pakistan. England are also capable of winning one Test out of three in New Zealand.
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The next two series results are where there is some difficulty in terms of the likelihood of required results. Ideally, Pakistan need all of South Africa, Sri Lanka and Australia to drop points but given they are playing each other, someone is guaranteed to gain.
Therefore, with the previous set of results, Pakistan would need South Africa to beat Sri Lanka 1-0 at home, and Sri Lanka to beat Australia 1-0 at home – with one draw in each series. Unfortunately for them, draws have been at a premium in the World Test Championship, with inclement weather usually having to play a part to produce such an outcome.
Pakistan would be in trouble if New Zealand manage to beat India 3-0, as they would then need the Black Caps to lose twice at home to England. Similarly, if New Zealand beat India 2-1 but then England 3-0, they would overtake Pakistan.
If New Zealand were to end up drawing one of the above matches assigned as a loss for them, they would finish on a points percentage of 52.38, the exact same as Pakistan. Qualification would then be decided based on which side has won more Test series.
It's a delicate balancing act of (quite unlikely) results that needs to go Pakistan's way for them to have a shot at glory, but as long as the math works out, they can continue to dream.
All calculations made without taking into account potential over-rate penalties.
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