What do Pakistan's chances of making the 2025 World Test Championship final look like?

What do Pakistan's chances of making the 2025 World Test Championship final look like? Could they make a shock run to the final?

From tomorrow (August 21), Pakistan will take on Bangladesh in a two-Test home series, as part of the World Test Championship for 2023-25. Both matches are set to take place in Rawalpindi.

In the current WTC cycle, Pakistan have played five matches so far. They beat Sri Lanka 2-0 away from home, before losing 3-0 to Australia Down Under. Those results have given them a points percentage of 36.66%, putting them sixth in the table at present.

Pakistan have nine matches to go, against the following opponents:

  • Bangladesh (H) (2 matches)
  • England (H) (3 matches)
  • South Africa (A) (2 matches)
  • West Indies (H) (2 matches)

So, can they make the World Test Championship final?

Note: All calculations assume no points are deducted for over-rate violations.

Pakistan's fate is (mathematically) in their own hands

Winning all of their nine remaining Tests will lift Pakistan to a points percentage of 77.38%. Such a set of results would guarantee them a spot in the final, against one of India, Australia, New Zealand or Sri Lanka.

In this sense, Pakistan's fate is in their own hands, and the requirement is simple – win every game. If they draw or lose even one match, at this point it is possible for a final to take place between two other teams.

But all this is from a purely mathematical point of view. What are the more likely scenarios?

Tests involving Pakistan

Let us be charitable and say Pakistan will defeat Bangladesh 2-0 in their upcoming series. They were defeated 3-0 at home by England during their last face-off and while a repeat could be on the cards, let us again be a bit more lenient and say that it ends 2-1 in Pakistan's favour.

Next up is a tour to South Africa. Pakistan have been white-washed 3-0 in both of their most recent trips to the Rainbow Nation. With an improved performance, they may pull off a 1-1 draw but let us assume another whitewash and say this ends 2-0 to South Africa.

Pakistan's final series is at home against West Indies, who have been quite poor in this cycle. A 2-0 win for Pakistan is not out of the question here.

These results will give Pakistan a points percentage of 55.95 per cent.

Tests involving India/Australia

The top two teams, India and Australia, are currently above 60 per cent but will play each other later this year. If India maintain their home dominance, whitewashing Bangladesh 2-0 and New Zealand 3-0, even a 5-0 loss to Australia will leave them ahead of Pakistan in the table, with 58.77 per cent.

A 5-0 series result in favour of India would be more beneficial to Pakistan, as that would send Australia to 50 per cent even if they were to defeat Sri Lanka 2-0. However, this is close to impossible (a 5-0 away series win has only ever occurred once in Test history). Besides, such a result would also open the door for South Africa, Sri Lanka and New Zealand to compete for a spot in the final alongside India.

If the Border-Gavaskar Trophy ends 2-1 to either side (the margin on India's last two tours Down Under), both sides will finish above Pakistan (assuming they win all their remaining matches) and put them out of the running.

Other Tests

Things do get interesting with this scoreline if Australia falter outside of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, though. If they win that series 2-1, as we have assumed, they will still have to win one match, or draw both matches on their tour of Sri Lanka, in order to remain above Pakistan. This is easier said than done, as their last two series results in Sri Lanka are 1-1 and 0-3.

This may give Pakistan a glimmer of hope of making the final. But even this set of results means their chances of making the final still depend on India maintaining their excellent home record (likely), New Zealand losing at home to England (unlikely), and South Africa faltering in Bangladesh (possible).

In short, the set of results we have assigned to Pakistan mean their overall chances of making the final remain quite unlikely. In order to better them, they will have to improve on these assigned outcomes and/or hope for other results to go their way. A draw instead of a loss against England and likewise in South Africa could help, although they would not guarantee anything.

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