Bangladesh finished last in both the 2019-21 and the 2021-23 editions of the World Test Championship. Of the 19 Test matches across the two editions, they had won one, drawn two, and lost 16. When the 2023-25 edition began, few would have expected them to be a contender for a spot in the final.

But Bangladesh began well. They thrashed New Zealand by 150 runs at Sylhet before the visitors clawed back in with a close win at Mirpur. And once the touring Sri Lanka swept them aside with a 2-0 win, few gave Bangladesh a chance.

The series triumph over Pakistan in Rawalpindi, however, has put Bangladesh back in the reckoning. With a PCT of 45.83 after six Test matches, they are in fourth place and marginally ahead of England’s 45.0 from 15 matches. However, since England have played nearly thrice as many Test matches at Bangladesh, a win will boost their PCT only by a small fraction of what a win will do for Bangladesh.

What do Bangladesh need to do?

Matches remaining: vs India (two away), vs South Africa (two at home), vs West Indies (two away).

Bangladesh will reach 72.92 and qualify for the final if they win each of their six remaining Test matches, but that may seem far-fetched. Let us keep it to four wins.

They next tour India for two Test matches. India have beaten Bangladesh in 11 of the 13 Tests, and dominated the two rain-affected draws. But then, Bangladesh had never beaten Pakistan before, either, so why not? Let us predict 1-1.

South Africa’s last four series in Asia were a 0-2 defeat in Pakistan, a 0-2 defeat in Sri Lanka, and two 0-3 defeats in India. New Zealand had to fight to level the series in Bangladesh in 2023, so why not Bangladesh to claim a 2-0 win against South Africa?

The West Indies tour is going to be a steep challenge. Bangladesh did win 2-0 there in 2009, but that was when they hosts fielded a second-string side after a cohort of first-choice players went on a strike. Let us give them a 1-1 draw.

That will take Bangladesh to 56.25. Will that be enough?

What needs to happen in the other series?

For Bangladesh to qualify with 56.25, one of India (65.15 after a 1-1 draw against Bangladesh) and Australia (62.50) needs to drop below that mark.

Australia tour Sri Lanka in January. If Sri Lanka win 2-0, Australia will drop to 53.57 – but now the India-Australia five-match series needs to be taken into account. If Australia win that series 3-1, they will reach 57.02 and surpass Bangladesh.

What about India? We have already assumed a 1-1 against Bangladesh. A 3-0 win against New Zealand, followed by a 1-3 defeat in Australia, will take them to 60.53. A 1-4 defeat in Australia will then take India to 58.77; a 0-3 defeat to 57.02; and a 1-3 defeat to 60.53.

It must be remembered that the other teams are in the race as well. England can potentially reach 62.50; New Zealand 78.57; and Sri Lanka 69.23; and none of these teams will play Bangladesh.

Of the other teams that will will play Bangladesh, only South Africa (can reach 69.44) are in the running. The West Indies will have to settle for a maximum possible PCT of 43.59. They are out of the race.

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