Pakistan began their 2023-2025 World Test Championship campaign on a high, sweeping Sri Lanka 2-0 in their own backyard, exactly a year after drawing a series with them in the previous edition of the tournament.

They are sitting pretty at the top of the table currently with 24 points from two games. Having won one and drawn one in the West Indies, India are second, with 66.67 percent, while Australia and England are third and fourth respectively.

The points system for the World Test Championship

To give you a refresher on the points system for the 2023-2025 World Test Championship, every Test match is worth 12 points. A win gets a team 12 points, a tie gets six, a draw four, and a defeat nothing.

The over-rate penalties are important as well. Each over a team falls short in a Test match results in a one-point deduction for the offending team, which can have an impact on the points percentage, the parameter used to rank teams.

Pakistan’s golden chance to make the WTC Final

Pakistan’s fixtures in this edition of the World Test Championship include:

• a two-match series against Sri Lanka (away)
• a three-match series against Australia (away)
• a two-match series against Bangladesh (home)
• a three-match series against England (home)
• a two-match series against South Africa (away)
• a two-match series against West Indies (home)

Among these, they have already earned the maximum points available from their away series against Sri Lanka, always a huge advantage, especially given they had lost a Test to draw the series 1-1 the last time they were there.

India had qualified for the final of the 2021-2023 edition at the second spot, with 58.8 percent. While there is no concrete number that will guarantee a top-two finish, let us assume that 60 percent should be good enough to finish in the top two and make the final.

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In that case, Pakistan need to accumulate at least 101 points from their 14 scheduled Test matches in this cycle. With two Tests and 24 points already ticked off, the equation comes down to a minimum of 77 points from 12 Tests. That can be achieved by six wins and two draws, or seven wins.

Pakistan’s home games include four Tests against Bangladesh and the West Indies, and three against England. Anything less than four victories against Bangladesh and West Indies would be disappointing. It is the three-match home series against England that will potentially make or break Pakistan’s chances.

The last time England toured Pakistan, they routed them 3-0 as the hosts were unable to come to terms with their ultra-aggressive approach. This time, however, Pakistan seem to have adopted an aggressive approach of their own, as was evident in Sri Lanka. If they are able to hold England for a drawn series, or better still, win by a margin of 2-0 or 3-0, it will take them either very close or past the 60 percent mark (assuming they whitewash Bangladesh and West Indies at home).

Their two remaining overseas assignments are tough ones: three Test matches in Australia and two in South Africa. The last time Pakistan did not lose a Test in Australia was in 1995, and the last time they did not lose one in South Africa was in 2007. If they are able to save two out of these five Tests, it would go a long way in sealing their spot in the top two.

It may, however, happen that 60 percent might not be enough to finish in the top two. In that case, Pakistan might need to eke out at least one victory out of their five remaining overseas Tests and ensure they win at least two out of the three home games against England.

The road might not be straightforward, but with the start they have got and with their new-found aggressive approach, Pakistan have a good opportunity of making a realistic case for a berth in the Final of the 2023-2025 World Test Championship.