England’s domination in Wellington was almost total. After a brief wobble on the first morning, New Zealand were continuously under the pump both in the field and with the bat, Brydon Carse and Gus Atkinson’s strikes early on day two securing the coffin lid, before Jacob Bethell, Ben Duckett and Joe Root nailed it shut.

New Zealand were completely outplayed in all facets of the game, the defeat more comprehensive than in Christchurch last week, where the eight catches they dropped somewhat papered over the deeper concerns in their performance. The timing of the loss, coming at the end of a World Test Championship cycle and with the dominant generation in their side now in their mid-30s, means there’s scope for this series defeat to trigger at least a partial regeneration.

It’s hard to marry up this New Zealand side with the one who came out of India victorious just over a month ago. Such is the rarity of even fleeting success for touring sides in India, New Zealand’s 3-0 whitewash felt incomprehensible. But in reality, a specific set of conditions and team configurations meant New Zealand were able to find a way to win in India, one that wouldn’t apply when they returned home.

The matches that New Zealand won in India were largely low-scoring affairs, where the emphasis was on spinners to take wickets rather than batters scoring big runs. Only Rachin Ravindra averaged over 50 during the series for New Zealand, while he was also the only centurion. The lack of those higher-order runs was somewhat eased by having two solid all-round spinners outside their top-six, as well as an all-round spin attack who were able to run through India on multiple occasions.

England seal a series win in New Zealand for the first time since 2008.

An emphatic victory for Ben Stokes' team.#NZvENG pic.twitter.com/eHnJbs43Nb

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) December 8, 2024

However, that same method doesn't translate elsewhere. Since their WTC final win in 2021, New Zealand have lost seven out of 14 home Tests. Their bid for the final in this edition has been built on a series-win against a depleted South Africa line-up earlier this year, as well as their win in India. The consistency and foundation New Zealand relied on for their win in 2021, is long gone.

From the XI that won the final Test of the India series in Mumbai, Ish Sodhi and Ajaz Patel made way in Christchurch, Tim Southee and Nathan Smith coming in as extra seamers, and leaving Glenn Phillips as the main spinner in the side. There were also movement in the batting line-up, Will Young, who scored two 50s in the final Test in India and was crucial in New Zealand’s win, had to give way for a now recovered Kane Williamson.

The problems caused by not having a specialist spinner in the side were obvious in Christchurch. While England relied on Shoaib Bashir’s four wickets on day one, New Zealand were only able to get nine overs out of Phillips as their seamers toiled. While a useful player to have in the arsenal for subcontinental tours as a lower-order hitter and useful off-spinner, having Phillips batting outside of the top-six as a specialist spinner in New Zealand isn’t a practical option.

More importantly, however, that core of batters capable of regular big runs which saw New Zealand rise to the top of the 2019-21 WTC, has faded. New Zealand have scored over 400 only twice this year, something England did in both Christchurch and Wellington. Across the current cycle, New Zealand are seventh of all teams in the standings for the averaged runs scored for every wicket lost at 27.22. That’s compared to 2019-21 when they were at the top of that list with 37.14. The obvious difference here are the players New Zealand have lost from that cycle, namely Ross Taylor, while Henry Nicholls, Colin de Grandhomme, and BJ Watling have also moved on. In the bowling department, Neil Wagner and Trent Boult are also no longer around.

But, the core top three of that side is still there in Tom Latham, Devon Conway and Williamson. Daryl Mitchell averaged well over 50 between 2021 and 2023, while Ravindra arrived to Test cricket this year in a blaze of glory as the next big thing. It’s been their collective loss of form which has created the run drought New Zealand have found themselves in. Aside from Williamson and Ravindra, none of New Zealand’s top six have averaged more than 30 in Test matches this year. Combine that with that all of them apart from Ravindra are nearing or entering their mid-30s, and the end of this WTC cycle could be a good time for regeneration.

Freeing up those spots would give a couple of young New Zealanders knocking on the door in domestic cricket space to come in. 22-year-old opener Rhys Mariu has averaged 70.12 from his first 10 first-class games, while 24-year-old Mitchell Hay has already been trialled in white-ball internationals, but has an excellent first-class record. With Southee already set to bow out following the series, that regeneration is already somewhat underway.

The doom and gloom cannot be the only takeaway for New Zealand from this defeat, however. Nathan Smith was excellent at several points with the ball, and cracked 42 alongside Tom Blundell to offer some resistance with the bat on the final afternoon in Wellington. Will O’Rourke has continued to impress, his speeds well up in Christchurch and if New Zealand had taken their chances his figures would have looked far healthier.

It’s hard to deny on the evidence of the series defeat, and the pattern they’ve been generally trending in over the last two WTC cycles, that New Zealand are in need of some kind of change. While that change post-2021 has already begun, now is the time to start the next phase of that re-development.

Follow Wisden for all cricket updates, including live scores, match stats, quizzes and more. Stay up to date with the latest cricket news, player updates, team standings, match highlights, video analysis and live match odds.