India's Test tour of New Zealand in early 2014 is remembered primarily for Brendon McCullum's run gluttony. In two Tests, the wicketkeeper smashed a double and a triple hundred, amassing 535 runs. Kane Williamson also scored a hundred in the first game of the series, the 30th Test of his career, following which, his average read 36.73.

Steve Smith reached the 30-Test mark a year-and-a-half later, during the 2015 Ashes. So did Joe Root, in the very next game as Smith. Virat Kohli, on the other hand, had captained India for the first time in his 30th Test in late 2014, famously smashing two hundreds in Adelaide. The corresponding averages for each of the three at those stages read 58.52, 55.02, and 43.08 respectively.

Ten years and one pandemic later, Smith averages 56.40, Root 50.81, and Kohli 48.13, all within reasonable distance from where they were after their 30th Test. Williamson's average, however, has sky-rocketted to 54.71, nearly 1.5 times of what it was after 30 Tests.

With Smith and Kohli on a steady decline, and Root having played so many more Tests than the others that a substantial swing of the average would require an outrageous run, either good or bad, Williamson is slowly but steadily heading towards the top of the Fab Four pile, at least on the basis of raw numbers.

Smith is the only real competitor Williamson has when it comes to finishing his career with the highest batting average among the four. The former Australia skipper's 20-point lead over Williamson ten years back has dropped down to a meagre 1.7-point advantage today.

In his last 20 Tests, Smith averages 35.54, the worst among the Fab Four. The manner in which he has started the Border-Gavaskar Trophy does not inspire confidence that it'll be much different over the next four games. If Smith manages a 300-run series with, say, nine dismissals, averaging 33.33 across five games, close to what he has been averaging for the last two years now, his overall number would be down to 55.16 by the end of the series.

If Williamson scores 300 more runs across the remaining five innings of the ongoing England series and remains unbeaten in one of those, he'll end up above Smith, at 55.20. Having already scored 93 in the first innings, that assumption would imply a series aggregate of close to 400 at an average of 78.6. To put things in perspective, Williamson has averaged more than that in a home Test series nine times in his career.

How (and when!) did Williamson sneak so far up the ladder?

Beyond the surface level, Williamson's numbers are pretty lopsided. He has the lowest average away from home among the four - 41.80. If you restrict it to Tests played in India, Australia, England, New Zealand, and South Africa (except for the home nation of the player in question), Williamson fares the worst among the four again, averaging more than 10 runs less than the next-worst, Kohli, who averages 44.

Where Williamson has edged far ahead of the other three has been his astronomical output in home Tests.

Since 2019, the lowest he has averaged at home in a calendar year is 71.62, this year. In this period, he has scored 2,221 runs at 92.54 in 18 home Tests, including 11 hundreds. Out of these 18 Tests, he has failed to cross 50 in only three.

By contrast, the highest any of the other three has averaged at home since the start of 2019 is 54.40.

Kane Williamson in home Tests:

– 82 innings
– 4,84 runs @ 67.22
– 19 centuries, 20 fifties

He was superb once again on day one of New Zealand's series against England 👏

🤝 @kiwiexperience #NZvENG pic.twitter.com/u1CCGE7j70

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) November 28, 2024

While Williamson has maximised his strength, which is to score heavily on greenish pitches in New Zealand which fool opposition teams into believing that batting would be difficult, circumstances have aligned for him to minimise his weakness.

Since the start of 2020 (roughly the post-pandemic period), Williamson has missed seven out of New Zealand's 17 away Tests, playing in only 58.82 per cent of those.

Smith and Root, meanwhile, have played every away Test Australia and England have played, while Kohli has missed only four out of 21 away Tests for India.

In the 10 away Tests that Williamson has played in this period, he has averaged 39.22. Assuming he didn't miss any away game and scored at the same rate across the 17 Tests, his overall average would stand at 53.50, around 1.2 points below what it actually is. That, however, would still keep him on second place among the Fab Four and tight on the heels of the one at the top.

Due to England's busier Test schedule, Root has steered clear of every contemporary cricketer in terms of sheer volume of matches played and runs scored. The Christchurch Test is his 150th, 31 more than Kohli, the second among the Fab Four in this regard.

Root's form has been outstanding over the last few years, and importantly, it has also been consistent. Since his 105th Test, Root's average has neither dropped below 49, nor gone above 51.50. It's pretty safe to assume that he stays there and thereabouts for the rest of his career.

For the other three, the fluctuation in averages has been a bit more wide.

If they continue scoring at the rates they have in their last 20 Tests, Williamson would cross 55 around his 120th Test. Currently playing his 103rd and averaging around six Tests per year in the last four years, it would take him around three more years to reach that mark.

If he does, the only thing that can prevent him from ending up with the highest average among the Fab Four would be Smith finding his hands once again.

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