How does India's loss to New Zealand in Bengaluru affect their chances of making the World Test Championship final?
In a rain-hit encounter, India eventually ended up on the losing side against New Zealand in Bengaluru. They were bowled out for 46 on the morning of day two, before conceding a 356-run lead built on the back of Rachin Ravindra's 134.
To their credit, India fought hard in the third innings, but slid from 408-3 to 462 all out, setting New Zealand a victory target of 107 on the final day. Sarfaraz Khan was the star of the show, scoring his maiden Test century (150).
On day five, New Zealand eventually got over the line in 28 overs, to win their first Test in India since 1988, and just their third ever.
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What does the Bengaluru loss mean for India's WTC chances?
The result has seen New Zealand edge above England and South Africa into fourth place in the WTC standings, for now. It has not affected India's position in the table, though. They remain in first place, just with a slightly reduced points percentage.
India are still one of the favourites to qualify for the World Test Championship final next June, but that is not a certainty by any means. How has the Bengaluru loss affected their chances?
India have seven more matches left in the WTC cycle – two more against New Zealand in Mumbai and Pune, and five against Australia Down Under starting next month.
Their chances of qualifying for the final will be in danger in all cases where two other teams can overtake their points percentage. They can avoid such a situation unfolding by winning six of their seven remaining matches. This will take them to a points percentage of at least 74.56%, which only Australia can exceed.
If India lose two matches and win the other five, they will finish on 69.3%, which can only be overtaken by South Africa as they will have beaten Australia at least thrice in this case.
Therefore, in order to qualify without depending on other results, India will have to win at least five more matches.
When will India be in danger?
India's main competitors for a spot in the final are Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka, with New Zealand potentially able to sneak in with certain results going their way.
Out of the seven remaining matches, if India lose three, their maximum possible points percentage will dip to 64.04%. This is a tally that, mathematically, can be overtaken by four pairs of teams – Australia & South Africa, Sri Lanka & New Zealand, South Africa & New Zealand, and Australia & New Zealand.
India would still be relatively safe in such a scenario. For example, if they beat New Zealand 2-1 but then lose 3-2 to Australia, South Africa would have to win all six of their Tests and Australia would have to whitewash Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka for those two to qualify over India.
However, they would still be keen to avoid opening themselves up to the possibility of this happening.
In conclusion, India should be relatively safe as long as they win at least four more matches and draw at least one more. They can secure qualification by winning at least five matches.
*All calculations are made without taking points deductions for over rates into account.
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