Virat Kohli looked set to finish in Test cricket's greatest-ever bracket. With a slump now extending nearly five years, he's likely to fall below the mark by the time he's done.
Virat Kohli, days away from his 36th birthday, has had a year of highlights and low points. He became a T20 World Cup winner and retired minutes after, and now continues in what are unarguably his two strongest formats.
Kohli’s greatness as an ODI player will stay unblemished, but his Test credentials have been taking bruises for a long time now, leaving us with the question:
Has he slipped too far to be the all-time Test great he once looked certain to be?
In plain definition, it could be sacrilegious for some to even consider Virat Kohli to not be a top-tier legend. He's likely to end up at least above Sunil Gavaskar on India's all-time run charts, third behind Sachin Tendulkar and Rahul Dravid. Those three names are synonymous with Indian Test batsmanship.
Kohli's level with Sir Don on the centuries count, with 16 names ahead of him across all countries, including the other 75 per cent of the Fab Four he belongs to.
Wedged between his Test accomplishments and all-time greatness is his now protracted Test slump.
Further into this month, it will be exactly five years since a Virat Kohli century resulted in an India Test win. For reference, there were 11 of those in the period from 2016 to 2019.
At the time of writing, his Test average stands at 48.07, the lowest it has been since November 2016. It’s been a steady downward curve since that last century in a win, against Bangladesh in 2019. He averages seven runs less than his peak of 55.10 from October that year, and it’s safe to say that number won’t be ever touched again.
Easy enough to say now, but if he had stopped at his peak average in October 2019, the number would have been bettered only by Wally Hammond, Garry Sobers, Kumar Sangakkara and Jacques Kallis, among all those with as many runs as him at that point (7,054). He’d still have as many Test tons as two of them.
Back to today: among all batters with more Test runs than him, 17 to be precise, only two – Hashim Amla and Alastair Cook – have a lower Test average. Amla, slightly more comparable to Kohli in role, had his own rough patches, not scoring a century in his final 29 innings. Cook had one in his last 18, the final one.
Both Cook and Amla averaged over 50 at some point during their peaks as well.
The other two members of the sub-50 club – Mahela Jayawardene and Graeme Smith – teased at the magic number before falling off in their last two years. Jayawardene’s drop from 54.67 in 2009 to an eventual 49.84 is slightly similar to Kohli’s.
For a player with the second-most centuries in internationals, Kohli also falls in the bottom section of that count among everyone with as many Test runs as him. Make it 50-plus scores, and Kohli’s last. In fact, his innings to 50-plus scores ratio (3.3) is the highest among everyone on the list.
Make it innings-to-century, and Kohli just makes it to the top half (6.9).
The disparity in Kohli’s away record also forms a gap in his numbers. His average away from home is 42.37. Twenty-four players with at least a 100 away Test innings average better than him. With a cut-off of 4,000 runs, 13 others have a better innings-to-away hundreds ratio than his 7.6.
Kohli’s played a majority of his career at No.4 – 150 innings, to be precise. With that cut-off, Jacques Kallis, Tendulkar and Jayawardene all average higher than his 51.92 (almost exactly as Joe Root). But here, Kohli’s innings-to-centuries ratio is only trumped by Kallis (4.6 to every century per six innings for Kohli).
His performance in winning causes is also slightly lower compared to others in the same bracket. Steve Waugh, Steve Smith and Joe Root all average in the mid-60s. Kohli is at 51. Only Mark Waugh, Justin Langer, Desmond Haynes and Shane Warne have batted in 100+ innings in won Tests, and averaged lower.
The painful drop since the start of 2020 has now become an ever-extending crevasse. In this patch now nearing five years, Kohli averages 32.22 from 59 innings, with two centuries and nine fifties. For everyone who’s played as many innings, Kohli’s average is the second-worst after Najmul Shanto. The century count is joint-worst with Tom Latham.
Standing now at exactly 200 innings, Kohli should still get into the 10,000-run club, end up among the top fifteen Test centurions of all time, most likely be among India’s top three run-getters, and even chase a Test average of 50. But those numbers still won’t hide the dent (scratch, crater) of the last five years, leaving him at least a level below Test greatness he was set to achieve.
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