New Zealand secured a historic series whitewash over India, winning the third Test in Mumbai by 25 runs. What are their chances of making the World Test Championship final?
The Kiwis inflicted the first-ever whitewash of India on Indian soil in a bilateral Test series of three matches or longer. It was also the first home series loss for India in 12 years, and New Zealand's first-ever Test series win in India.
But while the series on its own has been historic, New Zealand's performance has also thrown a spanner into the works, as far as calculations for the 2025 World Test Championship final are concerned.
The final is scheduled to be held at Lord's in June 2025, and at this point it is near-impossible to predict which pair of sides will make it.
World Test Championship points table
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Drawn | Points deducted | Points | PCT |
| Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 90 | 62.50 |
| India | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 98 | 58.33 |
| Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 55.56 |
| New Zealand | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 54.54 |
| South Africa | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 54.17 |
| England | 19 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 19 | 93 | 40.79 |
| Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 33.33 |
| Bangladesh | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 27.50 |
| West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 18.52 |
Will a whitewash against England guarantee a place in the final for NZ?
From a New Zealand perspective, however, they now have a real chance of making it to their second World Test Championship final.
The Kiwis have three matches left in the current cycle – all at home against England. A 3-0 series victory there is not out of the question, and would put them in an extremely strong position to make the final, with a points percentage of 64.29.
New Zealand are not completely safe even if they beat England 3-0, though. There are four pairs of teams that can still mathematically overtake them – India & Sri Lanka, India & South Africa, Sri Lanka & Australia and South Africa & Australia.
Read more: For a WTC final berth, India need to beat Australia... and hope
The two possibilities involving India require India to win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Australia by a margin of 4-0 or better, something that is highly unlikely to happen. The Sri Lanka-Australia scenario needs two unlikely events to take place – Australia win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 5-0 (nothing less will do) and Sri Lanka beat South Africa 2-0, in South Africa.
Never say never, but the above possibilities can fairly safely be kept aside for now.
South Africa and Australia could conceivably contest the final in spite of a 3-0 win for New Zealand. This would take South Africa winning all four of their remaining matches, against Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home as well as Australia winning five of their seven remaining matches (e.g. winning the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 3-2 and beating Sri Lanka 2-0 in Sri Lanka).
Also read: India lose to Oman, return winless from five games at Hong Kong Sixes
This final scenario is more likely than the ones preceding it, but would still require a stellar effort, particularly from Australia who will either have to whitewash Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka, or beat India 4-1.
Therefore, New Zealand should be quite safe if they manage to beat England 3-0. But this is far from a given. What if they drop one Test?
Can New Zealand afford to lose even one match against England?
If they beat England 2-1 instead, New Zealand will have a points percentage of 57.14. This scenario then opens things up quite dramatically.
An India-Australia final is still relatively unlikely in such a case, but New Zealand losing just one match makes both South Africa and Sri Lanka extremely dangerous.
Both those teams will play each other later this month, and both will need just three wins out of four matches to overtake New Zealand in this case. It means that if that series finishes 1-1, South Africa beat Pakistan 2-0 at home and Sri Lanka beat Australia 2-0 at home, both of them will overtake New Zealand.
If New Zealand drop one Test against England, one set of results that sends them through to the final is the following:
- Australia 3-2 India
- South Africa 2-0 Sri Lanka
- South Africa 2-0 Pakistan
- Sri Lanka 2-0 Australia
These results are not off the table, and in fact are quite likely. But there is little room for error. In this case, the Kiwis could ill-afford a one-sided Border-Gavaskar Trophy (4-1 or better either way) as that would help India or Australia meet South Africa in the final. Similarly, Sri Lanka winning even one Test in South Africa could jeopardise their chances.
All that is in New Zealand's hands is their own results. The mandate is simple: win all three, and they will almost surely make the final. But lose even one, and they are on rather more shaky ground.
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