India WTC final

Being clean swept by New Zealand at home has caused significant damage to India’s chances for the 2025 World Test Championship final.

Against New Zealand, India were clean-swept in a home Test series for only the second time in history, after the 0-2 defeat against South Africa in 1999-00. The 0-3 defeat resulted in a steep decline in India’s PCT. With 58.33, they dropped to second place for the first time since the early stages of the 2023-25 World Test Championship.

India are now below Australia (62.50), and not too far ahead of Sri Lanka (55.56), New Zealand (54.55), and South Africa (54.17). All five teams can now qualify.

India’s remaining Test matches in the 2023-25 WTC

India have only their five-match Test series in Australia remaining now. The Tests will be played at Perth (from November 22), Adelaide (December 6), Brisbane (December 14), Melbourne (December 26), and Sydney (January 3).

A 5-0 win will take India to 69.30 (they should qualify with that), 4-1 to 64.04 (almost certainly “safe” zone), and 3-2 to 58.77 (not so good). However, if India lose 2-3, they will drop to 53.51 – and be all but out of the race for the final. Even a 2-0 win will keep them to 57.02 which, as we shall see, may not be enough.

Will a 3-2 win in Australia be enough for India?

Not quite, for they will have to wait for other results.

A 3-2 win for India will result in Australia dropping to 58.55 – but Australia will still have the two Tests in Sri Lanka to contend with. A 1-1 draw there will result in Australia finishing on 55.26. Even if they win 1-0 in Sri Lanka, Australia will finish on 57.02.

A 1-1 draw in South Africa and against Australia will keep Sri Lanka to 53.85 – again, below India. If South Africa beat Pakistan 2-0, they will reach 61.11. South Africa beating Sri Lanka 2-0 will obviously work in India’s favour.

India will then have to back England to win one of their Tests in New Zealand: if they do that, they will keep New Zealand to 57.14, leading to an India-South Africa final.

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