India’s shock Test series defeat to New Zealand hasn’t just ended one of their proudest records, cutting off a streak of 18 wins on the bounce stretching back to 2013, it has also threatened another run, with a third consecutive World Test Championship final appearance now in doubt.
India are yet to win the ICC’s long-format showpiece, beaten by New Zealand at Southampton in 2021 and by Australia at The Oval in 2023. Next year the final will be at Lord’s, but India’s participation is far from certain.
While India are still top after defeat to the Black Caps, they have their toughest assignment to come, away in Australia. That being a five-Test series only heightens its importance, with the WTC table ranked on a points-per-game basis.
India have six Tests left. If they win three of them - say, claiming a consolation victory against New Zealand and succumbing to an honourable 3-2 defeat down under - they will have a PCT of 58.77.
It’s possible that that would be enough to see them to the final, but far from certain. With Sri Lanka playing both South Africa and Australia, and all three capable of exceeding that marker, India will likely need two of those teams to trip each other up. For South Africa, four wins out of five games (one against Bangladesh, two against Sri Lanka and Pakistan) would see them overtake India. For Sri Lanka, three out of four wins will be enough. For Australia, assuming they win that series against India 3-2, just one win against Sri Lanka will be enough to put them clear of India.
So if, for example, South Africa win all three Tests against Bangladesh and Pakistan, then - assuming there are no draws - the only combination of results that would see India qualify would be a 2-0 win for Sri Lanka in South Africa, and a 2-0 win for Australia in Sri Lanka.
If India only win two of their last six Tests, losing the rest, the situation is even more dire. Australia would already be unreachable, while Sri Lanka would need just two wins to clear them, while four wins and a draw would do for South Africa.
The good news for India is that if they win the third Test against New Zealand, and then win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy by any margin, they would almost guarantee a spot in the final. That would put them on at least 60.53 PCT, out of Australia’s reach, and only one set of results would see both South Africa and Sri Lanka overtake them: India win the BGT 1-0, South Africa and Sri Lanka draw 1-1, and both win the remainder of their games.
Follow Wisden for all cricket updates, including live scores, match stats, quizzes and more. Stay up to date with the latest cricket news, player updates, team standings, match highlights, video analysis and live match odds.
