Following their shock series-win in India, New Zealand could be back on course to make the World Test Championship final in 2025.
New Zealand, the 2019-2021 WTC Champions, were struggling in the current edition ahead of their tour of India. They had won three out of eight games in the cycle before the series and had a PCT of 37.5, well behind Australia and India in the two qualifying spots. They had also suffered a 2-0 series defeat in Sri Lanka, which had seen them slip down the rankings.
However, after winning in Bengaluru and sealing the series in Pune, New Zealand have catapulted to fourth place in the table. They now have 60 points from 10 matches, giving them a PCT of exactly 50.
World Test Championship standings after Pune Test
| Team | Played | Won | Lost | Draw | Deducted | Points | PCT |
| India | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 98 | 62.82 |
| Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 90 | 62.50 |
| Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 55.56 |
| New Zealand | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 50.00 |
| South Africa | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 47.62 |
| England | 19 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 19 | 93 | 40.79 |
| Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 33.33 |
| Bangladesh | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 30.56 |
| West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 18.52 |
New Zealand now sit behind India, Australia and Sri Lanka, and just above South Africa. They have four Tests remaining in their cycle – one more in India and three against England in December. As well as their match against New Zealand, India have five matches against Australia left in the cycle, while Australia have two in addition to that, against Sri Lanka. South Africa have one more match against Bangladesh, and two two-match series against Pakistan and Sri Lanka respectively.
What do New Zealand need to reach the World Test Championship final?
With New Zealand having the fewest matches remaining, and finishing their cycle the soonest, they will be looking at others' results when they can no longer influence the equation.
The maximum PCT New Zealand can reach if they win all of their remaining games is 64.29, which is ahead of what India and Australia are on currently. If they lose in Mumbai, the maximum PCT they will be able to achieve drops to 57.14. In that scenario, New Zealand will only be able to lose one of their games against England and still stay ahead of them, even if India lose all of their five matches in Australia, which is not likely.
Simply, New Zealand need to win as many matches as possible. Taking their closest rivals one by one, if New Zealand were to win all of their remaining matches, Australia would be their next challenger on PCT. In this scenario, Australia would only be able to afford to lose two of their remaining seven Tests if they were to stay ahead of New Zealand on PCT.
In the same scenario, India would need to win all five Tests in Australia a finish ahead of New Zealand's PCT. Thus, in order to keep India behind them, New Zealand only need Australia to beat India once to out-pace them if they win all of their remaining matches. Sri Lanka would need to win all four of their remaining Tests to overtake New Zealand's PCT in that scenario.
However, there is a scenario where New Zealand win all of their remaining matches and still don't go through. If either side were to win all five matches of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, and Sri Lanka were to win all of their remaining games, it doesn't matter what New Zealand do, they would not be able to reach the final. Their best hope relies on one side not winning the Border-Gavaskar Trophy too heavily.
If New Zealand lose to India in Mumbai, that equation flips. They would need either Australia or India to dominate the BGT, and need both South Africa to lose at least two of their remaining matches. Of course, New Zealand would also need to win all of their Tests against England. If they lost just one of those games, in addition to the final match of the series in India, the equation would be harder still.
In that scenario, the BGT would again be important. They would either need India to win narrowly and hope that Australia lost both Tests to Sri Lanka, or hope that India win big, meaning Australia could win at least one of the Tests against Sri Lanka and still stay below New Zealand. South Africa would also have to beat Sri Lanka in both matches but lose their other three remaining games in the cycle.
Thus, the more matches New Zealand win, obviously, the better their hopes. The more matches they lose, the more complicated their equation gets.
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