As things stand in the World Test Championship, India and Australia are in pole position to finish as the top two sides and contest the final next June. But can any other teams stop this happening?
These two sides met in the final of the competition in June 2023, where stellar performances from Steve Smith, Travis Head and Nathan Lyon saw Australia win their first World Test Championship. It was a second consecutive loss for India, who had also succumbed to New Zealand in 2021.
For the final of the 2023-25 edition, everything points towards a repeat of the 2023 final. But here is how some of the other teams could qualify for the final, and prevent an India-Australia repeat.
All scenarios are forecast without taking into account any future points deductions.
Sri Lanka
Let us start with Sri Lanka, currently the third-placed side in the table. They have three more home Tests – one against New Zealand and two against Australia. Their other two matches are in South Africa.
Giving them a relatively charitable 1-1 scoreline in South Africa (they lost the last series there 2-0 but won the one before that 2-0), and giving them wins in all three home Tests will take Sri Lanka to a points percentage of 61.54.
Crucially, in this scenario, they will have defeated Australia 2-0. In the worst-case scenario (in terms of preventing an India-Australia final), India will win all four of their remaining home matches.
Read more: What Sri Lanka need to make the 2025 World Test Championship final
Proceeding as such leaves us to factor in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT). With the previous set of results assigned to the teams, Sri Lanka will qualify for the final, most likely ahead of Australia.
If Australia manage to win one match in Sri Lanka in this scenario, they only need to beat India twice at home to ensure an India-Australia final. These two scenarios hold true even if India drop one home Test. But if Sri Lanka lose 2-0 in South Africa, their fate is no longer in their own hands.
In summary, Sri Lanka's biggest stumbling block is likely to be the tour of South Africa. If they do not win one match there, even whitewashing Australia at home might not be enough to qualify.
New Zealand
New Zealand have six Test matches left, and therefore a mathematical chance of making it to a points percentage of 71.43. They have one Test remaining against Sri Lanka after a narrow loss yesterday (September 23). Following that, they travel to India, where no visiting team has won a series since 2012.
If we are extremely lenient, and give New Zealand a win against Sri Lanka, one win in India and a 3-0 home series win over England in November-December, the Black Caps will still need Sri Lanka to whitewash Australia (possible) and India to at least draw at least two Tests in Australia (quite possible). If Australia take a Test off Sri Lanka, New Zealand will need to hope India do not win even one Test in the BGT.
The main sticking point for them is this – New Zealand may beat Sri Lanka, may win one Test in India or may whitewash England at home. But all three of these happening is highly unlikely.
If they manage to pull off a real shock and win two or more matches in India, that could make things interesting but even that is no guarantee of qualification.
South Africa
South Africa are in a not-dissimilar situation to New Zealand. They have six matches left, and winning them all would take them to a percentage of 69.44. Four of these matches are at home; two against Sri Lanka and two against Pakistan. There is no guarantee of this, but it is definitely not impossible for them to win all four matches.
Their other two fixtures are in Bangladesh, a tricky place for visiting sides. In case South Africa are whitewashed 2-0 there, and India win all four of their remaining Tests, the Proteas will need Sri Lanka to whitewash Australia, and India to secure a series scoreline of 2-2 or better in the BGT.
Also read: Karthik: 'Unacceptable' to say Pant is already India's greatest keeper-batter
If Australia take a Test off Sri Lanka, South Africa will then need India to win the BGT by 4-1 or better. This holds true even if India drop a Test against New Zealand. South Africa will not want Bangladesh to beat India, as that could send them above the Proteas.
The one situation in which the BGT becomes irrelevant to South Africa is if they take one Test off Bangladesh in addition to winning all four at home. In that case, South Africa can qualify as long as Sri Lanka whitewash Australia. All of these, though, are far easier said than done.
The rest of the teams
Beyond Sri Lanka, New Zealand and South Africa, no other team has a realistic chance of preventing an India-Australia final. Even if England win all six of their remaining Tests (all away from home), they will need India to lose four out of nine matches in order to stand a chance of making it to the top two.
Things are not as bad for Bangladesh. If they win all five of their remaining Tests, there are a few scenarios which could see them qualify. However, they depend on Sri Lanka doing just well enough to take Australia out, and just poorly enough to take themselves out. It is also extremely unlikely that Bangladesh win all five – one in India, two at home against South Africa and two in the West Indies.
The bottom two teams, Pakistan and West Indies, are both virtually out of the running. With several teams in between them and the top two, there are only highly convoluted and highly unlikely scenarios in which they might each have a shot at making the final. For all intents and purposes, they pose no threat to the chances of an India-Australia final.
Follow Wisden for all cricket updates, including live scores, match stats, quizzes and more. Stay up to date with the latest cricket news, player updates, team standings, match highlights, video analysis and live match odds.
