Virat Kohli’s average used to threaten 55 at one point, but it has since fallen to under 49. Here is how he can still get to that 50-mark.
Virat Kohli had attained fifty – the Holy Grail of Test batters for decades – by December 2016. After flirting with that mark for some time, he attained escape velocity as he soared towards 55 across 2018. He crossed 54.6 in December 2018 and – despite the occasional dip – was at 54.3 as late as in February 2020.
Then he lost form. By March 2023 the number had plummeted to 48.12. But he found form again, and the runs flowed, and he breached 49 again... and reached even 49.38. The twin failures at Chepauk, however, brought the number down to 48.74.
Before we begin, it must be emphasised that Kohli has the 19th-most runs in the history of Test cricket. Among Indians, only Sachin Tendulkar, Sunil Gavaskar, and Rahul Dravid have more. It is already a remarkable career, one that still has several thousands of runs to offer.
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At this point, 10,000 runs and 35 hundreds seem inevitable, but he will also want to get that average back to fifty. It is a remarkable career even without that, but having it on the charts will silence the odd nitpicker.
What does Kohli need for that average of fifty?
Kohli has been dismissed 182 times in Test cricket for his 8,871 runs – in other words, he is 229 runs away from that 50-mark. A 229 not out in his next innings will be enough for now, as will 279 if he is dismissed.
However, Kohli will – by all expectations – play for some time now. The longer he plays, the less steep the requirement. Here is what he needs to do.
The batting average is dependent on dismissals. Kohli has been dismissed once every 17.5 innings. In a career spanning 13 years, Kohli has got out 182 times – in other words, 14 dismissals a year.
Kohli is five weeks away from turning 36. If he continues to play until 40 (like Alec Stewart, Sachin Tendulkar, Shivnarine Chanderpaul, or Rangana Herath), he should have more than 56 dismissals if he continues to play with the same frequency as he has throughout his career. Mind you, he has already retired from T20Is.
Given Kohli’s supreme fitness levels, however, he can hope to continue even further. James Anderson retired less than a month before his 42nd birthday. Misbah-ul-Haq was approximately a year older than Anderson when he played his last Test. If Kohli plays until Misbah’s age, he will have seven years (nearly a hundred dismissals) to take his average up to fifty.
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