Virat Kohli smashed 47 in 35 balls before Shakib Al Hasan claimed him in the first innings of the second Test, at Kanpur. The innings took Kohli to 8,918 runs in Test cricket – and past the 27,000-run milestone across the three formats. At 594 innings, Kohli became the quickest to reach there.

Only Sachin Tendulkar (34,357), Kumar Sangakkara (28,016), and Ricky Ponting (27,483) have more runs than Kohli (27,012) in international cricket. While Sangakkara and Ponting seem comfortably within reach, overtaking Tendulkar may take some effort, particularly since Kohli retired from T20Is after this year’s World Cup.

Whether it is prudent to add career aggregates across formats is a debate best left for another day. At this point, Kohli needs another 7,345 runs to overhaul Tendulkar.

Can Kohli catch Sachin?

An easy way to predict this is to use Kohli’s career, but he has undergone numerous ups and downs. The prodigy of the late 2000s became a great ODI batter in the early 2010s to an across-format run-guzzling glutton in the mid-2010s before he lost form around COVID-19. There has been a resurgence since the start of 2023.

Of course, it is unfair to assume that Kohli (or anyone) will not be able to replicate his heroics of the 2023 World Cup, where he set a tournament record with 765 runs at 95.62. However, it has been offset by 2024, where he had ordinary outings in his three ODIs. In fact, Kohli’s 1,435 ODI runs since that cut-off date (68 runs a month) is actually lower than the 72/month he has amassed over his career.

In Test cricket, his average of 47 over this period is slightly lower than his career average of 48.73. Thus, it is not unfair to use the same parameters for his prediction.

Until April 2027, India are scheduled to play 25 more Tests (26 if they qualify for the 2023-25 World Test Championship final) as per the ICC Future Test Programme.

They will also play at least 27 ODIs. Let us assume Kohli, for various reasons, misses some games. Let us give him 20 Tests and 20 ODIs – conservative estimates, given that he has given up one format and India may end up playing more games.

Since January 1, 2023, Kohli has scored 799 runs in 10.5 Tests (he has one innings left in the Kanpur Test). Using 10.5 as denominator, we get 76 runs per Test – or 1,520 runs across 20 Test matches.

In ODIs, he has got 1,435 runs in 30 games (47.8 runs/ODI). Across 20 matches in this rapidly shrinking format, he is thus predicted to score 956 runs. Combine the formats, and you get 2,476 runs. Let us round that off to 2,500 runs.

Why use runs per match and not runs per innings (the two values are the same in ODIs) or batting average? Because, in the end, it will also come down to how many times he bats in a Test match. Very strong teams – Kohli plays for one – often do not get to bat twice in a Test match.

Kohli, thus, is expected to score 2,500 runs across the next 31 months. That will take him to 29,500 runs. Assuming he continues to score at the same rate and India have an identical schedule, the 31 months after that will take him to 32,000.

Kohli will turn 42 the same month. Whether he goes past Tendulkar may eventually come down to how many years he plays after his 42nd birthday. It is difficult, but age does not seem to have caught up with Kohli yet.

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