India are perched at the top of the points table for the 2023-25 World Test Championship, and are firm favourites for a berth in the final for the third time in a row. However, they still have ten Test matches to play, including five in Australia – and things may change over the course of time.

India’s schedule for the 2023-25 World Test Championship league stage

Home: Two Tests against Bangladesh, three against New Zealand
Away: Five Tests in Australia

2023-25 World Test Championship: What does India need to qualify for the final?

WTC 2019-21 cycle followed a different points system, so the 2021-23 cycle – a sample size of one – is the only reference to go by. There, a points percentage (PCT) of 58.8 was enough for India to earn a berth in the final as the second-placed team in the league stage.

Let us make India’s task a bit sterner than before. Let us push their target to 60. For that, India need to lose five of their remaining Test matches (and drop to 58.77). Alternately, they can lose four and draw two, which will take them to 57.02. However, four defeats and a draw will keep them to 60.53.

But that leads to another question. Even if India drop to 57.02, one team other than Australia needs to go past them. Can teams do that? For this, let us assume that India beat Bangladesh 2-0 and New Zealand 2-0 but lose 0-4 in Australia and reach 57.02.

If that happens, Sri Lanka can reach 61.54 by defeating New Zealand and Australia 2-0 each and drawing 1-1 in South Africa (they are the only Asian side to win a Test series there).

Despite losing 0-2 in India (we have assumed this) New Zealand can reach 59.52 if they win 2-0 in Sri Lanka and beat England 3-0 at home.

Bangladesh cannot go past 56.25 if they lose 0-2 in India. On the other hand, if they lose 0-1 (and New Zealand lose 0-3), India will remain at 57.02 but Bangladesh can go to 59.03.

England are in this too. Two sweeps of 3-0 – in Pakistan and New Zealand – will take them to 57.95.

The greatest threat, however, is South Africa. Since they play less than most of the favourite sides, every result will impact their PCT substantially. Six wins in six Tests will take them to 69.44. Five wins to 61.11. Four wins and two draws to 58.33.

India’s position in the final is, thus, not guaranteed. However, once they cross that 60-mark, both Australia and South Africa – and perhaps Sri Lanka – have to ensure everything goes their way if they have to collectively knock India out of the race.

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