Could Rohit Sharma's Test batting average overtake Virat Kohli's?

Two of India's stalwarts across formats, both Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli have demonstrated their batting skill in Test cricket for over a decade so far – Kohli since 2011 and Rohit since 2013.

Their journeys have been contrasting ones until now. Kohli has been omnipresent since he first donned the whites for India, while Rohit was dropped and moved around the order before settling into the setup at the top of the order in 2019. His appointment as Test captain in 2022 completed a satisfying redemption arc for him.

As a result, Rohit has played just over half the number of Tests that Kohli has, 59 to 113. Their run tallies tell a similar story – Rohit has 4,137 to Kohli's 8,848. But in terms of batting averages, they have started to converge ever so slightly. Could Rohit overtake Kohli during the Bangladesh Test series?

Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli: The story so far

Kohli had a slow start to his Test career, scoring 4 and 15 on debut against West Indies. He scored his first half-century in his fourth match, and his first century in his eighth match. His batting average was consistently in excess of 40 from his 16th match, before ticking up to 45 around January 2015, his 33rd Test.

Kohli first touched 50 in his 52nd Test with his 235 against England in Mumbai. After some slight fluctuation between 50 and 49, another double hundred, this time against Sri Lanka, took his average up to almost 54. That was in December 2017, and until January 2022, his average remained above 50.

By March 2023, his average had gone down to 48.1, but Kohli has brought it back up since then, to 49.15.

Rohit, by contrast, started with a bang in Test cricket, scoring 177 in his very first outing. It dropped below 40 for the first time in his 11th Test match, and dipped as low as 32.6 by his 18th Test. Since then, however, Rohit has averaged 51.5 with the result that his career average went as high as 48, in October 2019. It now stands at 45.46.

Can Rohit overtake Kohli's average in the Bangladesh series?

An average difference of roughly three and a half points may not seem like much, but it will not be easy for Rohit's average to go past Kohli's in the Bangladesh series.

Being a two-Test series, both players can bat a maximum of four times. To simplify calculations for now, we will assume that both of them bat all four times, and are dismissed all four times. In order for their averages to "cross over", Rohit's needs to improve, and Kohli's needs to fall. In short, Rohit needs to have an excellent, almost otherworldly, series and Kohli needs to have a (very) poor one.

Also read: When Bangladesh accused Virat Kohli of fake fielding

If we assume a tally of 100 runs across the four innings for Kohli, his average will come down to 48.630. For Rohit to cross that mark, he will need to score 483 runs with four dismissals – that will take his average to 48.632, crossing Kohli's only on the third decimal point.

To illustrate just how much it will take for their averages to cross over, consider the following scenario. Even if Kohli endures a dire series, with 50 runs for four dismissals, Rohit will still need to register 458 runs in the series for his average to overtake Kohli's.

In this case, if Rohit can remain not out in a couple of innings, this can happen with a lower run tally. It is still far from easy, or even probable, for that matter. If he manages to stay not out once, he will need to score 409 runs to Kohli's 50, and if he stays not out twice, will need to score 361 runs.

More: Gambhir to Kohli: 'I wanted those confrontations, they got me in the zone'

Even in the extreme scenario of Rohit remaining not out in all four innings, he will still need to score at least 264 runs for his average to move above Kohli's. Taking it a step further, and assuming in this case that Kohli is dismissed for a duck in each of his four innings, Rohit would still need at least 239 runs to push his average above Kohli's.  

As an opener, Rohit has very little chance of staying not out even once, let alone all four. In addition, it is highly unlikely that Kohli suffers a slump so dramatic that Rohit gets a chance to overtake his average. All in all, we can say with near-absolute certainty that this is not possible during the upcoming series.

But looking ahead, what does Rohit need to do to end his Test career with a higher average than Kohli?

Can Rohit ever overtake Kohli?

Both players will likely retire at similar times. If we take the end of the 2027 World Test Championship cycle as a cut-off point, we can say they will play roughly 25 Test matches each, with 50 batting innings potentially available to them.

If both players are dismissed in all 50 innings, Rohit will need to outscore Kohli by roughly 515 runs for his Test average to move ahead of Kohli's. This required difference will decrease as Kohli's run tally increases, and increase if they play more innings. Of course, along the way Rohit will have some (very) slight wiggle room if he manages to register fewer dismissals than Kohli.

To sum things up, there is a chance that by the end of their careers both players' averages will converge. But that will require one of two scenarios to unfold; Rohit has an uptick in form while Kohli dips, or Kohli performs roughly according to his record and Rohit has a significant improvement, as he nears the age of 40.

The former is possible, while the latter is extremely improbable. Fundamentally, both appear unlikely at this point of time. But never say never.    

 

Gautam Gambhir to Virat Kohli: "I don’t want guys to change me one bit, and you don’t want guys to change you" 🤝

Read: https://t.co/ygSjExK2Nz pic.twitter.com/UAuh6jxWb8

— Wisden India (@WisdenIndia) September 18, 2024

 

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