Rain may alter approaches, but a draw is unlikely

Rain is forecast on day one, and perhaps beyond that, at Centurion. There has not been a drawn Test on South African soil since 2016, while only one game since 2015/16 has lasted beyond 360 overs (four playing days).

The chances of a draw are minimal unless it is a washout, but if rain takes a chunk of the Test match away, the onus will be more on South Africa to push for a win. Given their schedule, this is their best chance of making it to the World Test Championship final, and sharing points will be detrimental in that pursuit.

Additionally, a post-rain fresh pitch is likely to influence both starting XIs. Test matches in South Africa are often seam-bowling duels, but this one may turn out to be more than the usual.

Who are the Indian bowlers anyway?

Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj are ‘locks’ with the new ball, as is Ravindra Jadeja, as the superior batter (and the left-hander) of the spinners. None of the other bowlers, on the other hand, are certainties.

One of R Ashwin and Shardul Thakur is likely to play, along with one of Prasidh Krishna, a tall bowler of pace who can extract bounce, and Mukesh Kumar, an accurate but slower bowler who can use the seam. But then, it could also be Ashwin and Shardul, along with Bumrah, Siraj, and Jadeja, which will provide considerable batting depth.

However, given Prasidh’s extra height – the lack of which Rahul Dravid had pointed out after a series in the same country two years ago – he may get the nod. The choice between Shardul, who has the best figures for India in South Africa, and Ashwin, who had an ordinary series last time, may come down to conditions.

The two Big Twos

From seven Test matches across three tours of South Africa, Virat Kohli has amassed 713 runs at 51.35. Rohit Sharma has had an ordinary record here, but that was when he used to bat in the middle order. Since being promoted to the top, Rohit averages 41.26 across eight Test matches in ‘SENA’ countries.

Neither Dean Elgar nor Temba Bavuma is a name as big as the two Indians. However, since the pandemic, Elgar averages 55.60 at home and Bavuma 54.23. To add more context, the batting average of 24.19 in South Africa the lowest for any host country over the same period.

When India toured South Africa in 2021/22, Bavuma (221 runs at 73.67) and Elgar (235 at 47) were the forefront of their side’s batting efforts, along with Keegan Petersen (276 at 46), whose numbers seem to have taken a hit since then.

South Africa may out-bat India

The lineups of both teams consist multiple greenhorn batters, whose lack of experience may be exposed against quality bowling attacks. There is, however, one aspect where South Africa hold a distinct advantage.

The South African attack is more sorted than India’s. They may leave out Wiaan Mulder and Keshav Maharaj and still pick a five-pronged pace attack, spearheaded by the redoubtable Kagiso Rabada, without having to worry about batting. Marco Jansen is a capable batters while Gerald Coetzee is not a rank tail-ender either.

Of the Indian seamers, only Shardul fits that bill. If India want to shorten their tail, they will have to sacrifice one seamer, perhaps even two, and play spinners (or even specialist batters) instead.

If it turns out to be a seam-bowling match-up, South Africa hold the upper hand at Centurion in sheer depth in both batting and bowling. If South Africa indeed go one up, India will have to return home without the final frontier – they have never won a Test series in South Africa – unconquered.

India’s keeper conundrum

India have hinted that Rahul may keep wicket, but they have not officially announced that yet. If he indeed dons the gloves, it will be a most unusual thing to do. This is unlike England backing Jonny Bairstow ahead of Ben Foakes, to use one of numerous similar examples: unlike Bairstow, who has been Yorkshire’s gloveman on and off in the County Championship since 2009, Rahul has started only one first-class match as designated wicketkeeper.

There is little doubt over Rahul’s improvement behind the stumps in limited-overs cricket. If he indeed plays, India will hope his batting credentials and form – over which there is little doubt – makes up for the lack of experience behind the stumps in the format.